Open-Up Bunky
No wonder Memorial Day saw a bunch of folks frolicking on the shores of Lake of The Ozarks.
By every account, comparing predictions, projected infection rates, hospital usage, and deaths associated with the COVID virus to the actual cases convince me that we may have wildly overreacted to this virus. To wit, “The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old (younger than 65) during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 13 and 101 miles per day…”*, Well then, closing down the country, taking on a couple of more trillion in debt was probably wise. Oopsey Daisy….
Professor Spiegelhalter’s chart provides yet another view of reality: And, seems to confirm the research referenced in this message about the real risk of the disease – it’s about the same as getting on with your life if you are younger than 65 years old and slightly worse if you are older than 65 if exhibiting an underlying condition. Worldmeter** offers a fairly comprehensive array of statistics regarding the virus – it may be worth the reader’s time to review this, and based on your profile, determine your risks associated with contracting the disease.
As measured by the NASDAQ composite and Standards & Poors 500, stock prices have been indicating the mistake of closing down our economy since about March 23rd. As I pen, this sentence, NASDAQ is up about 41%, the S&P 500, up around 38%. The aggregate of all investors represented by the markets knew. “The recovery is going to be much quicker than anticipated because the disease is becoming a non-event.” Now we know.
Sweden’s approach may offer an example of what we can do; they informed it’s populace on the risks and made recommendations to it’s elderly, resulting in only one lockdown – no gathering of more than 50 persons.
Stay healthy, stay safe, and remember – if you get infected, it will most likely not make a difference in your life span.
Carlos Dominguez – CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Portfolio Manager, RJFS
When you get a minute try out our risk discovery tool – tell your friends
https://windsorwealth.management/my-risk-o-meter/
Sources:
*Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, and Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine (Dr. Ioannidis), Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, California, USA (Dr. Ioannidis and Dr. Axfors), Department Women’s and Children’sn’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden (Dr. Axfors), and Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA (Dr. Contopoulos-Ioannidis)
* https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Spiegelhalter
**https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196
Sources are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed sources. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any source or the collection or use of information regarding any source’s users and/or members. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is considered representative of the U.S. stock Market. Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Leading Economic Indicators are selected economic statistics that have proven valuable as a group in estimating the direction and magnitude of economic change. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Any opinions are those of Carlos Dominguez and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.