Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 66 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 65 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open on the week’s first session. Carryover momentum after last week’s gains and pre-open gains in the mega-cap space have supported the early positive action. A pullback in market rates has also contributed to the early trading bias. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.48%, and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.85%. There is no U.S. economic data of note on today’s calendar, but this week, the April Producer Price Index is on Tuesday, and the April Consumer Price Index is on Wednesday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight pattern and closed flat at 5,222.68 after testing the support level at 5,211.78 on Friday. The volume was low all week, and the index should see some high-volume trading days this week. A slew of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down nine points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 22 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias after another slate of earnings news. The negative bias also follows yesterday’s session, which saw the recent rally run into resistance when the S&P 500 hit 5,200 at its high of the day. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 2.6% versus last week’s 2.3% decline. Other data include the March Wholesale Inventories report at 10:00 ET and the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. Treasury yields are slightly higher, contributing to the downside bias in equities. The 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.48%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.84%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range and closed flat at 5,187.70. However, the last four trading days were the strongest since November, and the path of least resistance appears to be higher.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures are mixed this morning after another slate of earnings news. One of the Dow components is a standout loser, dropping 6% before the open after disappointing results. The 10-year note yield is down two basis points to 4.47%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.83%. On a related note, results from today’s $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET. The March Consumer Credit report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 raced past the 50-day moving average and closed higher at 5,180.74. The RSI index also increased considerably in support of the buying and closed at 58.27. The up volume was 77% of the total, showing substantial momentum behind the rally, but the volume during the three-day rally has been below average. So, pausing these levels to form… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 109 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 284 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. There’s a positive bias in front of the April Employment Report at 8:30 ET. Big pre-open gains in a large tech company, which beat earnings estimates and authorized a $110 billion buyback program, and a large Health Care company, which reported better-than-expected earnings, have contributed to the upside bias. Treasury yields are lower in front of the jobs report, which is expected to show a 250,000 increase in payrolls in April. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.56% and the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded up to the 50-day moving average, but the sellers returned, and the index closed at 5,127.79. The RSI index issued a bullish signal by closing at 53.63, so there is a chance for more buying today. If the 50-day moving average at 5,129.79 is taken… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 31 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 132 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 160 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are higher this morning. The upside bias is in response to Fed Chair Powell indicating in his press conference yesterday that a rate hike is unlikely. Earnings news since yesterday’s close has garnered mixed reactions. Looking ahead, a mega-cap tech company headlines the earnings reports after today’s close. Friday’s economic calendar features the April Employment report. Today’s data include weekly jobless claims, preliminary Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, and the March Trade Balance at 8:30 ET. The March Factory Orders report will be released at 10:00 ET, and the EIA Natural Gas Inventories will be released at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied up to the 20-day moving average at 5,091.61, but sellers came in and drove the index to a lower close of 5,018.39. Markets were encouraged by… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 22 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 123 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 82 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. There’s a negative disposition in early trading in front of market-moving events today. The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, which details how the Treasury plans to borrow this money across the yield curve, will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The latest policy move by the FOMC will be announced at 2:00 ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 ET. Market participants will be focused on any tonal shifts in rhetoric from Mr. Powell following recent sticky inflation readings. Investors are also responding to another heavy slate of earnings news. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply by 1.49% on fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve. The index closed at 5,035.69 with a volume of 2,766,668,800, and 88% was downside volume. The RSI index did not cross the 50 level and closed at 43.12 in support of the selling. So, the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 61 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading features a positive bias driven by carryover momentum following last week’s higher finish and pre-open gains in some influential names. A large consumer discretion company is a winning standout in that respect, showing a 10% gain in front of the market after China tentatively approved the company’s full self-driving service, according to The Wall Street Journal. It is another busy week in terms of earnings news and economic data. The April ISM Manufacturing Index will be released on Wednesday, and the April Employment Report will be released on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 50-day moving average, but sellers came in, and the index closed lower at 5,116.17. The 20-day moving average at 5,109.77 is now potential support, and the possible resistance remains at the 50-day moving average of 5,126.06. The internal indicators remain bullish, and the RSI index is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 61 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading features a positive bias driven by carryover momentum following last week’s higher finish and pre-open gains in some influential names. A large consumer discretion company is a winning standout in that respect, showing a 10% gain in front of the market after China tentatively approved the company’s full self-driving service, according to The Wall Street Journal. It is another busy week in terms of earnings news and economic data. The April ISM Manufacturing Index will be released on Wednesday, and the April Employment Report will be released on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to the 20-day moving average at 5,116.15, but sellers came in, and the index closed at 5,099.96. The RSI also closed higher at 46.75 in support of the rally, and a close above the 50 level would be bullish. This week is packed with earnings announcements, with Apple… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 108 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down five points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. Early trading has a mostly positive feel as market participants react to another slate of earnings news. Shares of one of the influential names that reported earnings after Tuesday’s close are up sharply despite missing estimates. The pre-open price action reflects positive sentiment around the production of affordable models, which the CEO said will begin in early 2025 if not late 2024. Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower earlier, but a big pre-open gain in one of the components after pleasing earnings news drove the recent improvement. Other notable names that reported earnings also received positive responses to earnings results, which has contributed to the overall positive bias. Separately, CEO Jamie Dimon says US economy is “booming” but he is cautious regarding a soft landing, according to FT. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 2.7% after mortgage rates rose for a third consecutive week.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 37 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 41 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. This morning’s modestly positive bias is rooted in carryover interest from yesterday’s rebound effort, as well as some pleasing earnings results from some industrial companies. A continued downturn in oil prices ($81.50, -0.40, -0.5%) has helped improve sentiment a bit, although Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 2-yr note yield again pressing 5.00% and the 10-yr note yield sitting at 4.64%. There is a $69 billion 2-yr note auction today. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET, and they hold market-moving potential. Today’s economic calendar features the March New Home Sales Report (Brieifng.com consensus 670K; prior 662K) at 10:00 a.m. ET (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply and closed at 5,010.60, higher by .87%. Up volume accounted for 73% of the total, and the RSI turned higher, closing at 37.90 in support of the rally. We feel the S&P 500 will be… Read More
