Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down nine and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 43 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early trading has a slightly negative bias, but stock futures are mostly flat. The major indices are sitting on solid gains for the week heading into the session. Participants receive more market-moving data today: July Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8:30 ET, followed by the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey at 10:00 ET. Treasury yields are lower in front of the reports. The 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.87%, and the 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.04%. Elsewhere, commodity futures are trading lower. WTI crude oil futures are down 2.7% to $74.90/bbl, natural gas futures are down 1.3% to $2.17/mmbtu, and copper futures are down 0.9% to $4.11/lbs. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the third day and closed substantially higher at 5,543.22. The close was also above the resistance level at… Read More
Windsor Wealth is proud to congratulate our good friend Sammy Smith! The library at Gainesville High School was recently named in his honor. Sammy served on the Gainesville school board for 16 years and worked tirelessly to preserve and honor the high school’s history and traditions. Our own Anne Bleakley was there with her son Dub and mom “Needles,” who did Sammy’s wonderful oil painting for the event.
Headline News: Sales at U.S. retailers posted the biggest increase in July in a year and a half. Still, most of the gain was tied to a rebound in auto sales after dealers recovered from a nationwide cyberattack on their computer systems. The government said Thursday that sales surged 1.0% last month. Based on a Wall Street Journal poll of economists, they had been forecast to rise 0.3%. If autos are excluded, retail sales rose a more modest 0.4% last month, seasonally adjusted figures show. However, June sales were revised to show a 0.2% decline instead of no change. The exaggerated increase in sales in July does little to dispel the notion the economy has slowed from last year’s breakneck pace. High interest rates and several years of severe inflation have put more pressure on households, especially those with lower incomes. The jobs market has also weakened and made it harder to find work. (Jeffery Bartash MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied again, closing at 5,455.21 and just above the 50-day moving average at 5,455.21. The index has now rallied 6.6% off the 8/5/2024 low of 5,119.26, and we feel the buying can continue today. The only negative during… Read More
Headline News: On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices increased 0.2% month over month in July. On an annualized rate, inflation ticked up 2.9%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a 0.2% increase from the prior month and a 3% gain year over year. So-called core inflation, which strips food and energy from the headline number, advanced by 0.2% in the month, which is also in line with expectations. The report comes a day after lighter-than-expected wholesale inflation figures boosted stocks. The Dow rose more than 400 points, or about 1%. The S&P 500 climbed 1.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.4%. All three major averages are now above their Aug. 2 closing level, which was the session before the global market sell-off on Aug. 5 that appeared to be related to an unwind of trades in Japan and concerns about economic growth. (Brian Evans CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open and rallied all day to close at 5,434.43. The RSI index also increased to support the rally, closing above the 50 level at 51.72. The trading action may have been traders’ pricing in a tame CPI report, so today’s trading could be muted. The S&P 500 is now back to… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures were higher early Tuesday as investors parsed this week’s first batch of key inflation data and weighed fresh earnings. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.6% and 0.9%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 129 points, or 0.3% The producer price index—a measure of wholesale prices—increased 0.1% last month. According to Dow Jones consensus estimates, economists expected the reading to show a monthly gain of 0.2% in July, in line with the previous month’s reading. The consumer price index, which is expected to be released on Wednesday, is expected to show an increase of 0.2% last month, up from a 0.1% decline in the prior month. The data could give an uncertain market some direction after last week’s wild moves. (Brian Evan and Sarah min CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range and closed lower at 5,344.39 but above the resistance level at 5,341.88. The trading was as expected as traders waited on the producer price index report out this morning, which showed inflation cooled in July. The S&P 500 futures moved higher on the news, and the index has a chance to take out potential resistance at 5,375.95 today. However,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 13 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 47 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. There’s a positive bias in early trading following last week’s turbulent action in equities. Pre-open gains in mega-cap names have contributed to the upside bias. This week’s calendar features influential economic data. The July Producer Price Index (on Tuesday), the July Consumer Price Index (on Wednesday), and the July Retail Sales report (on Thursday) are among the potentially market-moving events. Today’s data include the July Treasury Budget at 2:00 p.m. ET. The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.95%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.05%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second day and closed at 5,344.16, above the prior resistance of 5,341.88. However, the recent rally off the low has come with decreasing volume, so caution is still warranted. Today’s trading could be muted due to the CPI report coming out on Wednesday… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 190 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias, supported by pre-open gains in mega-cap and semiconductor stocks. President Biden announced his exit from the 2024 presidential race in an X post, adding that he endorses VP Kamala Harris, who will seek the Democratic nomination. The response from the equity and bond markets has been muted so far. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.22%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.52%. There is no US economic data of note today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off for the third day while moving below the 20-day moving average to close at 5,505.00. However, the selling was not intense as the volume came in at only 2,637,592,832 shares traded, and the down volume was only 60%. So, there is a chance for a snapback rally today. So far… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 26 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early action is mixed, perhaps because there is a lot of mixed-up action around the globe following a flawed CrowdStrike technical update that impacted Microsoft’s operating system and caused a load of system outages that have affected airlines, banks, exchanges, and many other businesses. CrowdStrike said the bug was identified and that it rolled back its update; accordingly, system recovery efforts are underway around the globe but not yet fully restored in all cases. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply and closed at 5,544.59, just above the 20-day moving average at 5,538.97. The RSI index also continues to dive lower to support the selling, so we feel the recent short-term uptrend is over. However, the long-term uptrend is still in place, and the recent pullback could soon bring money off the sidelines. There is now potential support at 5,538.97 and then possibly at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 55 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 315 points and are trading 1.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 89 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Early trading has a negative bias. Pre-open declines in semiconductor-related names have contributed to the action after Bloomberg reported that President Biden is considering using more severe trade restrictions on chip imports from China. Treasury yields are slightly higher, keeping pressure on equities. The 10-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.18%, and the 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.47%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at another all-time high at 5,667.20 and is still walking the upper Bollinger Band. However, the RSI index is now in a negative divergence because it did not achieve a new high. Also, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 1% to start the day, so the markets might get the pullback we have been looking for today. Potential support is at 5,614.75 and 5,574.57; we feel the latter will hold… Read More
Headline News: Thursday’s inflation report is expected to be the main event for U.S. markets during a busy week that includes the start of the second quarter corporate earnings reporting season, a handful of Treasury debt auctions, and potential developments in the presidential election race. Like all marquee economic releases, the June consumer price index numbers could have serious ramifications for markets. Still, investors will be paying especially close attention this month, as the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut could hang in the balance. At the very least, a smaller-than-expected rise in inflation could encourage Fed Chair Jerome Powell to more forcefully prime the market for a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. Still, according to CME Group data, some believe that a sufficiently weak number could even open the door to a rate cut in a few weeks, which futures-market traders have dismissed as extremely unlikely. Meanwhile, a hotter-than-expected reading could stop the stock market rally in its tracks. (Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the third day, closing at 5,567.19, and is now at the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI index closed at 78 and remained in… Read More
