Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open as a rally in bond yields has high-growth tech stocks moving lower. Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) were all 1% lower in pre-market trading. The ten-year Treasury yield is now at 1.5%, and rising inflation and slowing economic growth have investors seeking safe assets. Markets: The S&P 500 traded flat, closing at 4443.11 on Monday, and remains in the middle of the new 4429.97-4465.40 trading range. The index is also slightly above the important 50-day moving average at 4441.75. The trading action was constructive for a potential continuation of the recent uptrend. However, the index is lower in pre-market trading and will potentially open at 4397.75, well below possible support at 4429.97. If so, there will be a new set of technical dynamics if the index cannot rally today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after closing out last week with a three-day rally. The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 2% in pre-market trading and at a yield of 1.5%. Increasing economic optimism and potentially higher inflation has the yield at the highest level since June. Meanwhile, the August durable goods orders came in higher than expected, increasing by 1.8%, which was $4.6 billion in new orders. Investors will also be watching events in Washington D.C. as the government is set to shut down Thursday if a new appropriations bill is not passed. Markets: The S&P 500 finished the week strong, closing higher at 4455.48 on Friday. The index is now above the 50-day moving average at 4439.43 and looks set to form a small base in the coming days. We believe a new trading range of 4429.97-4465.40 is developing, which the index should trade inside today. We also feel the base will be short-lived before the index potentially breaks past possible support at 4465.40 and continue the recent uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS… Read More
Headline News: This morning, U.S. stock futures are lower after China’s Evergrande failed to honor a debt payment on Thursday, and Nike (NKE) issued downside guidance because of supply chain issues. Also, uncertainty about the infrastructure bill and the debt ceiling for the U.S. have investors doubting the recent rally can continue. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied again on Thursday, closing higher at 4437.53. The RSI index moved back above the 50 level in support of the rally and is typically a bullish signal. Today, the index is set to open lower, which is typical after a two-day rally, and we feel the selling will potentially bring in new buyers next week. Possible support is now at the 50-day moving average at 4437.43, and potential resistance is at 4465.40. It is our opinion that the 50-day moving will hold today if tested. We are also moving back to a short-term bullish stance. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to open higher after the Federal Reserve was upbeat on the U.S. economy and said it could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases by as soon as November while also raising its inflation expectation to 4.2% by the end of the year. The Fed also said that rates could rise quicker than expected by next year. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims rose last week. According to the Labor Department, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 351,000 for the week of September 18. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied and closed higher at 4395.64 on Wednesday. The volume came in at 2,015,656,320, 85% of which was advancing volume. So, there is a chance the recent sell-off could potentially be done for now. If the index can close above yesterday’s high of 4416.75 with another 85% up volume day, the bulls could be back in charge. We were looking for more selling, but we are encouraged by yesterday’s trading, and we are hopeful there will be another rally today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to open higher as fears of a default by China’s Evergrande have eased. The land developer company negotiated a deal with bondholders to settle interest payments on a domestic bond. Investors will now focus on the Federal Reserves’ meeting later today and Chairman Powell’s press conference after the meeting. The Fed is expected to announce a timeline of when the tapering of bond purchases will begin. Markets: The S&P 500 tested resistance at 4392.37 early in the day but then sold off to close lower at 4354.19. The fact the index could not maintain a rally after a sell-off the day before is problematic, and the potential support at 4289.37 is now in play. Possible support could also come in first at 4322.53, but the index looks like it wants to go lower. So far, this morning, the S&P 500 futures are trading at 4369.00, which sets up another test of resistance. We feel the buying will potentially not last long, and a test of possible support at 4322.53 will occur today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to open higher a day a selloff in the S&P 500 due to fears of a global contagion from a potential collapse of China’s Evergrande, a property developer. However, the Chinese government has vowed to contain the problem before damaging the banking system. The company currently has $300 billion in debt and is struggling to meet an $83.5 million payment due on Thursday. Domestically, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day meeting today. Chairman Powell will give an update on Wednesday and is expected to provide guidance on the future of the current bond-buying program. Markets: The S&P 500 traded lower below two crucial support levels and closed at 4357.73 on Monday. The trading came with massive volume of 2,589,216,256, and over 90% of that was declining volume. So, we feel the selling is potentially not over, and the new, possible support level of 4289.37 could be tested. Today could see an early rally, but that rally could be sold into late in the day. The new possible resistance is now at 4367.73 and 4392.37, and those levels should be tested early, but we don’t feel the index can close above them today. We… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are set to open much lower as investors start the week with a multitude of concerns. The Federal Reserve meeting this week could see the Fed signal a slowdown in the current bond-buying program. Covid-19 cases remain high, concerns about a potential government shut down as the debt ceiling deadline approaches, and a 4% selloff in Hong Kong markets overnight have investors favoring the safety of cash to start the week. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 4432.99, and that was below the important 50-day moving average at 4436.35. The RSI continues to dive lower in support of the selling closing at 43.57. So, we feel the break below the recent trading range could potentially bring in more selling today. The next possible support level could now come in at 4392.37, and we feel that level will be tested today. If the selling should increase the next possible level of support could come in at 43289.37. This morning the S&P 500 futures are showing an open at 4341.50. So far, the index has only pullback by 2.6% since the high on 9/2/2021. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III… Read More
Does anyone remember the dot.com bust? Does anyone remember; Webvan, Boo.com, or Worldcom? Do you remember the wild Initial Public Offerings (IPO) of the dot-com companies – companies which by going public raised millions of dollars but never showed a profit? Do you remember folks quitting their jobs to day-trade in “the market”? Does anyone remember the media hype associated with financial markets during that era? And, does anyone remember how it ended? In a 1996 speech, Alan Greenspan, the then chair of the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve Board, referred to the dot-com phenomenon as “Irrational Exuberance.” Speculation is the act of making a relatively risky investment in the hope of making a sizeable short-term profit from price fluctuations; house-flipping, day-trading, cyber currencies, anyone? Investing, on the other hand, requires a commitment to an outcome. It may be owning and developing an enterprise. It may be buying the public stock of a business that increases its dividends regularly. It often requires patience and a long-term outlook – letting the company employees work for the owner (investor) every day to provide value to customers. The likely outcome being a consistent dividend stream resulting in increased wealth. Andy Kessler… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are set to open lower as investors appear to be cautious due to new Covid cases, a Federal Reserve meeting next week, and the historical weakness for stocks in September. Later today, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released for September, showing the current state to the U.S. consumer. Markets: The S&P 500 has now formed a trading range of 4437.66-4486.87 over the last three trading days. We feel whichever side the index breaks out of next will be the potential new trend. Typically when there is a selloff and then a base, the selling continues. So, we remain cautious due to the “September” effect and the fact the index has not had a 5% correction this year. We are looking for another day of trading within the trading range to close out the week. Also, today will be a rare quadruple witching which could cause some volatility at the end of the day. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Quadruple witching refers to a date… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a flat open after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.7%, supported by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments from the government. Also, the unemployment insurance weekly data showed 332,000 first-time jobless claims last week. Both reports have seemed to have eased fears of a slowdown in the U.S. economy for now, and investors will be anxious to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Markets: The S&P 500 had an impressive rally on Wednesday, closing higher at 4480.70 with 2,188,080,263 shares traded. Also, the RSI index rallied and closed back above the 50 level in support of the up move. The rally was textbook after six straight days lower, and the index is now at a crossroads. If there is another rally today with above-average volume, the recent downtrend could potentially be over. A close above 4492.99 would be a sign of strength. However, a move back down to 4437.66 could possibly see the downtrend continue. So, we feel the downtrend could continue despite yesterday’s rally, and we are looking for the 50-day moving average, 4480.70, could be… Read More
