Headline News: The stock market is poised for a modestly higher open. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value. Seeing a little bit of carryover momentum from Friday, yet the market is also waiting hopefully for headlines out of today’s U.S.-China trade talks in London, which are expected to produce some agreements on relaxing export controls. Separately, Bloomberg reports that the Senate could release its version of the reconciliation bill soon, with the aim of passing the final bill by July 4. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,000.36, moving above the long-standing resistance level of 5,986.09. However, up volume accounted for only 76% of total volume, falling short of the 80% threshold typically seen in confirmed breakouts. As such, we do not yet view this move as a decisive breakout. A more convincing rally, ideally accompanied by stronger upside volume, would be needed before the index can… Read More
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Headline News: The stock market is on course for a flat start after a subdued night in global equity markets, with futures on the S&P 500 trading in line with fair value. Asian stocks had a decent showing, with South Korea leading the way, while Japan saw gains in its JGBs even though today’s 30-year bond auction met soft demand. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is likely to announce a rate cut at 8:15 ET, and there is speculation that ECB President Lagarde could hint at a pause in the cycle during her press conference. In the U.S., there is a continued focus on trade policy, with participants wondering when President Trump will speak with China’s President Xi. Treasuries hold modest gains, with longer tenors showing some relative strength. The 10-year yield is down three basis points at 4.34%, while the 2-year yield is down one basis point at 3.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range, closing at 5,970.81, just under the current potential support level at 5,986.09. The April jobs report is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning, so we expect traders to remain on the sidelines again today.… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 163 points and are trading 3.0% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 774 points and are trading 3.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 999 points and are trading 2.4% above fair value. Major equity indices are poised for a sharply higher open after a significant development in the trade war with China. The U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China to 30% from 145% for 90 days (20% fentanyl tariffs plus 10% reciprocal tariffs). China decided to cut its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. to 10% from 125% for 90 days as trade talks continue. Also, President Trump will sign an executive order today at 9:00 ET that will require the government to adopt a “most favored nation” pricing model for prescription drugs so the “U.S. will pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world.” Early trading features a risk-on bias, and large-cap tech stocks lead the premarket action. Treasuries exhibited an uptick in selling. The 10-year yield is up six basis points to 4.44%, and the 2-year yield is up ten basis points… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 240 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 302 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the Dow industrials are higher. The market’s focus remains on tariff-related developments after indications that President Trump is set to announce a trade deal framework with the U.K. later today, fueling optimism about a shift in the global trade tensions. Also, the Bank of England lowered its bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as expected. U.S. Treasuries are seeing early selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year yield is up three basis points to 3.82%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested support at its 50-day moving average of 5,561.49 and rallied to close above it at 5,631.28. Futures are pointing to a 1% gain this morning, suggesting an open above the current resistance level at 5,695.31. A decisive close above that threshold would shift focus… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 174 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Early trading features a positive bias despite negative responses to earnings from a couple of prominent tech names. Optimism around the trade war situation is growing, contributing to the early trading bias. China’s Commerce Ministry said that the “US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China. China is currently evaluating this.” The market sentiment may shift following the 8:30 ET release of the April Employment Situation Report. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 4.22%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.71%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed above the 50-day moving average, and today’s jobs report is bullish for equities. The S&P 500 should test the resistance level at 5,695.31 at the open, and a close above that level would erase the losses that… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 179 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials are lower after this week’s solid equity market gains. There was some hope for de-escalation in the trade war with China amid indications that China could implement tariff exemptions on medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals, similar to what was offered during President Trump’s first term. The 10-year yield is three basis points lower at 4.28%, and the 2-year yield is unchanged at 3.79%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,525.21, with the RSI index also rising above the key 50 level to finish at 53.03. Technically, the correction phase appears to be over, and a new uptrend may be underway. However, any new tariff announcements still have the potential to significantly impact the market. From a technical standpoint, we expect the S&P 500 to test potential resistance at 5,636.18,… Read More
