Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 95 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 53 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Early indications point to a modestly lower open for the major U.S. indices, which starkly contrasts the 8.1% stimulus-driven, fear-of-missing-out rally in China’s Shanghai Composite. The latter will be closed through October 7 for the Golden Week holiday. Today’s advance followed some mixed PMI data and news that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) told commercial banks to start lowering mortgage rates in batches. The PBOC also cut the standing lending facility rates for maturities up to one month by 20 basis points. Notably, there hasn’t been the same carryover impact globally today as there was last week in the wake of China’s stimulus moves. Asian markets were mixed, including a material 4.8% decline for Japan’s Nikkei, as investors worried about the new prime minister supporting the BOJ’s tightening campaign, and European bourses are lower across the board with an FY24 profit warning from The dip here is likely… Read More
Headline News: PCE inflation rose 0.1% in August, which matches the Wall Street forecast. Core PCE climbs 0.1% in August, below 0.2% Wall Street forecast. The 12-month increase in the PCE index slows to a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.2% from 2.5%. The core PCE price increase in the past year edged up to 2.7% from 2.6% in the prior month. Consumer spending increases a modest 0.2% in August. (Jeff Bartash MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday high of 5,767.37, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at a new closing high of 5,745.37. The RSI index did not make a high, showing a possible slowdown in rally participation. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are flat after the better-than-expected PCE inflation report. A good inflation number may have already been priced into markets. Potential support is now at 5,733.57; possible resistance could come in at 5,767.37. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down three points and trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 30 points and trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down three points and trading fractionally above fair value. Buyer conviction is lacking, but once again, so is seller conviction. Equity futures indications are mixed, steered in part by a wait-and-see mindset. Specifically, participants are waiting to see if this market succumbs to selling interest or once again shows bull market stamina and squeezes higher despite calls it is due for a pullback. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both managed new record highs yesterday, bolstered in part by China’s policy stimulus measures. The PBOC was back at it last night, announcing a 30 basis point cut to its medium-term lending facility, yet the response was more subdued (relatively speaking). China’s Shanghai Composite gained 1.2% on the heels of Tuesday’s 4.2% surge. Sweden’s Riksbank also participated in the stimulus. As expected, its key policy rate was cut by 25 basis points to 3.25%, and the bank hinted at a faster pace of easing in coming months. Lower rates in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 30 points. They are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 46 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. This morning, a wave of stimulus measures announced by China to fuel stronger economic growth is receiving considerable attention. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be lowered by 20 basis points to 1.50%, the required reserve ratio will be cut by 50 basis points, the down payment requirement for second-home buyers will be reduced to 15% from 25%, and there will be a CNY800 bln ($113 bln) liquidity support facility for stocks. This news catalyzed a 4.2% gain in the Shanghai Composite and a 4.1% gain in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. The carryover effect to foreign markets hasn’t been as pronounced, but China’s stimulus measures have provided some support. Questions remain, though, as to whether these measures will be enough to jumpstart consumer demand and fend off deflationary pressures. The U.S. market isn’t primed to rally at today’s open. Yet, it is showing resilience to selling pressure following yesterday’s… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up nine points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias. Pre-open gains in some mega caps have contributed to the upside action and carryover momentum after last week’s solid move higher in the major indices. The 2-year note yield is unchanged from Friday at 3.57%, and the 10-year yield is up two basis points to 3.75%. Elsewhere, Soft Manufacturing and Services PMIs from the eurozone boosted speculation about an October rate cut from the European Central Bank. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight pattern and closed lower at 5,702.55 on Friday. There is now overhead resistance, potentially at 5,733.57, and possible support at 5,651.62. It would be healthy for the index to build another multiday base at these levels to consolidate the recent gains. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 77 points and trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are flat and trading in line with fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials have decreased after yesterday’s rate cut-induced rally. Volume is expected to be above average on this “quadruple witching” expiration day, which includes the expiration of index options, index futures, stock options, and single-stock futures. Pre-open losses in some mega-cap names have contributed to the early downside bias. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 3.73%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.61%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply to a new intraday all-time high of 5,733.57, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at a new all-time high of 5,713.64. The volume was only 2,798,258,944 and the up volume only came in at 74% of the total. So, we feel there is a new uptrend, but the trading could be choppy in the future. Also, the index is at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 95 points and are trading 1.7 % above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 420 points and are trading 2.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 491 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value. Stock futures are in rally mode this morning after the major indices finished slightly lower following yesterday’s more pronounced Fed rate decrease. The early upside bias stems from a belief that the economy is headed for a soft landing scenario and that the Fed will cut rates as needed to ensure that outcome. Pre-open gains in the mega caps and chipmakers have also contributed to the upside bias. Weakening labor market data contributed to recent fears about growth prospects, which led to a sharp sell-off in stocks last month. So, participants will be focused on the 8:30 ET release of weekly jobless claims, which continue to run below recession-like levels. As expected, the Bank of England maintained its bank rate at 5.00%. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 3.71%, and the 2-year yield is down two basis points to 3.58%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET. The committee is expected to lower rates for the first time since March 2020. Pre-open gains in some mega-cap names have contributed to the upside action. Treasury yields are higher ahead of the September FOMC Statement. The 10-yr yield is three basis points higher at 3.67%, and the 2-yr yield is three basis points higher at 3.62%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 14.2%, with refinance applications surging 24% and purchase applications jumping 5%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded above the resistance level at 5,651.62, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at 5,634.58. Today’s trading should be muted until 2:00 P.M. when the Federal Reserve announces the direction of interest rates. We feel the market has priced in a .50 bps hike, and selling… Read More
If you’ve called the office since May, then I’m sure you have spoken to Anne Bleakley. Here she is with her son, Dub. Dub has had an amazing summer.
The U.S. economy created slightly fewer jobs than expected in August, reflecting a slowing labor market while also clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this month.
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, down from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, according to a report Friday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
