Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 20-day moving average at 6,924.16, where buyers stepped in and the index closed higher at 6,941.47. The index has now formed a two-day base, and the RSI index is also stabilizing, indicating that the consolidation of the recent gains we have been anticipating is beginning to materialize. If trading can remain within this newly established base, an attempt at a new all-time high appears increasingly likely in the near term. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving averages are used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for… Read More
Headline News: U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.3% Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 55,000 in January while the unemployment rate held at 4.4%, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate. (Jeff Cox, CNBC |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,841.81 after briefly attempting to rally for a third consecutive session. The pullback suggests that buyers remain cautious near recent resistance levels, and the index has yet to establish sustained upside momentum. This morning’s U.S. payrolls report came in better than expected, and S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.44%. That stronger-than-expected employment data could attract buyers at the open, particularly if investors interpret the report as supportive of continued economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns. If buying pressure builds, the index could attempt to move toward and potentially close above the key resistance level at 7,002.28. A decisive close above that level would represent a meaningful technical development, especially if accompanied by strong breadth. From a technical standpoint, volume will be critical. If today’s session closes with a volume of 80% or more of the total volume, that would signal broad participation and increase the probability… Read More
Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for a second day, closing higher at 6,964.82. The index should be able to hold these levels for several days before attempting to break out above the resistance level at 6,986.33. The RSI index is not rising at the same pace as the S&P 500, suggesting a base needs to form at these levels. Today’s trading is likely to remain in a tight range as the index consolidates the recent gains. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving averages are used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for… Read More
Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply and closed higher at 6,932.30, finishing above the 20-day moving average. The RSI index moved back above the 50 level, and up volume represented 81% of total volume. These signals suggest the recent downtrend may be complete, and an attempt at the prior high could occur as early as this week. While some short-term consolidation is possible, the technical backdrop has clearly improved. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving averages are used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term ones. Signals can be derived from… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning after the major averages took a step back yesterday amid a poor day for tech and mega-cap stocks. Software, semiconductors, and other tech names faced a retreat that bled into other growth areas and saw the S&P 500 dip below its 50-day moving average before finding some support, while the NASDAQ Composite closed below its own 50-day moving average. Headlines are fairly quiet this morning, though investors are currently receiving another sizable batch of earnings reports. One of the world’s largest Communication Services companies reports after the close today, while one of the world’s largest Consumer Discretionary companies reports tomorrow, amid what has been a tough week so far for the mega-caps. The market will also receive several economic data releases this morning, including the January ADP Employment Change Report (Briefing.com consensus 43k) at 8:15 a.m. and the January ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 53.7%) at 10:00 a.m. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended January 31 decreased 8.9% from a prior decrease of 8.5%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a wide range and closed sharply lower at 6,917.81.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher opening this morning after stocks posted solid gains in their first February session yesterday. After an underwhelming finish to the previous week, the major averages rebounded broadly yesterday, with firm expansion in the January ISM Manufacturing Index (52.6%; Briefing.com consensus: 48.3%) boosting the market’s growth outlook. The market will not receive a lift from today’s scheduled economic data, as the partial government shutdown has delayed the release of the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report. The House will vote today to reopen the government. The bill funds most government agencies until September 30 & DHS until February 13. House Speaker Mike Johnson is confident the bill will pass after President Trump endorsed it without any changes, according to NBC News. In the meantime, earnings remain a key driver of price action, with over 100 S&P 500 companies set to report this week, including a few mega-cap tech companies. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 opened lower and below the 20-day moving average at 6,976.44, but buyers stepped in early and pushed the index higher toward resistance at 6,986.33. Sellers emerged at that level,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the major averages finished lower on Friday and mostly lower for the week. Stocks had a somewhat choppy previous week following mixed reactions to a batch of highly anticipated mega-cap earnings reports. The market will have plenty of high-profile earnings reports to assess this week, including those from a few Mag 7 companies. This week will also feature some key employment data, including the December JOLTS report on Tuesday and the January Employment Situation Report on Friday. In Washington, the Senate has passed a bill to fund most government agencies through September 30 and DHS through February 13. The government will be shut down at least until Tuesday, as House Democrats oppose the funding bill and some conservatives want to attach an election reform bill to it, according to Politico. Elsewhere, Axios reports that the Trump administration told Iran it is ready to meet and negotiate a deal, which has weighed on oil prices this morning. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below its 20-day moving average at 6,929.03, but buyers stepped in and the index managed to close higher at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after stocks finished mostly lower yesterday in reaction to a slate of mega-cap earnings. President Trump confirmed that he will nominate former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the next Fed chair. Futures are well off their earlier lows after the announcement, and treasuries have remained steady. Precious metals prices are facing a sharp pullback this morning after an impressive run to record highs. Gold futures are down about 4%, while silver is down about 11%. Meanwhile, oil is modestly lower despite The New York Times reporting that President Trump is considering new military options against Iran to target nuclear and missile facilities. In Washington, the White House & Democrats have reached a deal to fund most of the government through September 30 and the DHS through February 13. The Senate hopes to vote today after disagreements last night prevented a vote. The House is expected to vote on Monday, which means the government shutdown will occur over the weekend, according to Politico. On the data front, the market will receive the December PPI (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) readings today as… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning after stocks drifted modestly lower from yesterday’s record highs. While yesterday’s release of the November CPI (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) came in line with expectations and Core CPI (0.2; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) offered a slight surprise, the data did not alter the market’s expected timeline for Fed easing this year. Investors now await the 8:30 a.m. release of the November PPI (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) and Core PPI (0.2%) for further insight into producer-level inflation trends. Additionally, a slate of earnings reports from the major banks is trickling through this morning. The Supreme Court could issue a ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs today, which could act as another catalyst, particularly for tariff-sensitive sectors. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions remain high, with President Trump threatening “strong action” if Iranian officials begin hanging protesters, according to CBS News. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,963.74 after testing its all-time high, while the RSI also moved lower, finishing at 60.67. The index has now established a trading range between 6,920.34 and 6,986.63. We believe the lower end of this range could be tested… Read More
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