Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures are lower after another record finish for the major indices yesterday. Treasuries are falling under selling pressure, sending yields higher and keeping buying in check in equities. The 10-yr yield is up five basis points to 4.36%, and the 2-yr yield is up six basis points to 4.31%. Today’s economic data was limited to the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, which rose to 93.7 in October from 91.5 in September. Bitcoin continues to benefit from post-election buying, reaching a high above $89,000 earlier. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: After a four-day rally, the S&P 500 stalled at 6,017.31, and the index remained at the tip of the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI index did not make a new high and has yet to move into the overbought zone. Also, there has not been an 80% up-volume day since the election, so the election bump could be… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The stock market is poised to extend yesterday’s election-induced rally. Some names that reported earnings since yesterday’s close have garnered positive responses, contributing to the early bias and pre-open gains in mega caps. Treasury yields are slightly lower ahead of the open and will remain in focus today after the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 ET. The committee is expected to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%. In other central bank news, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to lower its bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, which was expected. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied 2.35% to close substantially higher at 5,929.04, and the volume was off the charts, with 4,168,372,992 shares traded. However, the up volume was only 70%, so we will… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 132 points and are trading 2.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 345 points and are trading 1.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1,360 points and are trading 3.2% above fair value. The Russell 2000 futures are up 6.1%. Seeing an outsized response following the news that Donald Trump has been declared the victor in the presidential election and that polling results point to the likelihood of a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, which is expected to pave the way for lower tax rates and deregulation. Treasury market participants are pricing in the prospect of stronger growth amid rumblings that they are also pricing in concerns about the budget deficit and national debt, as well as inflation heating up again. The 2-year note yield is up five basis points to 4.26%, and the 10-year note yield is up 15 basis points to 4.44%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 1.9% to 105.37. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 5,762.37 to close sharply higher at 5,782.76, and the RSI index closed above the… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 95 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. A sharp pre-open gain in shares of a large Communication Services name following strong quarterly results has boosted the broader equity market. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index (SOX) showed a 0.1% drop versus last week’s 6.7% slide. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 5,804.34, but buyers came, and the index closed higher at 5,832.92. Also, the ten-year treasury failed at the 4.29% resistance; this morning, the yield is currently at 4.26%. The Q3 GDP report came in under expectations, and the S&P 500 futures slightly changed this morning. We feel the trading could be light today before the release of the PCE inflation report tomorrow, and traders may already be holding off on trades in anticipation of next week’s election. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 130 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower as investors digest a heavy slate of earnings. Pre-open losses in the mega cap space have also contributed to the early downside bias. Rising market rates are another factor. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 4.30% and the 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 4.15%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range and remained inside the current trading range of 5,871.41-5,762.37. Today, a slew of large-cap companies will announce Q3 earnings, which could be a market mover. However, we feel a move to a new high today is unlikely. Also, the ten-year treasury yield continues to race higher, and it is just under significant potential resistance at 4.29%. Typically, the ten-year yield and the S&P 500 have an inverse relationship, and we feel that… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures are higher ahead of a big week of earnings news. Headliners include some of the largest companies in the world, and reports start on Tuesday. Oil prices are sharply lower after Israeli attacks over the weekend were limited to military bases in Iran. WTI crude oil futures are down 6.1% to $67.39/bbl and Brent crude oil futures are down 5.8% to $71.28/bbl. The 10-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.26%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.11%. There is no US economic data of note today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,808.12 and just above the support level at 5,804.34. The index is also just above potential support at the 20-day moving average at 5,709.51. We feel the index will hold the 20-day moving average if tested today. There is now a… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 27 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 192 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are higher. A large auto manufacturer’s shares show a sharp pre-open gain after better-than-expected earnings results, which has contributed to the early bias. Futures linked to the Dow industrials are lower due to disappointing earnings from some of its components. Today’s economic calendar features the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 ET, the preliminary October S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 9:45 ET, and the September New Home Sales report at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, falling to support at 5,762.37, but buying came in, and the index closed at 5,797.42. If tested, potential support at the 20-day moving averages of 5,783.79 and 5,762.37 should be held today. We feel there will be strong demand at these levels, and the possible resistance at 5,804.34 will be breached today, putting… Read More
