Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 38 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early trading has a mixed disposition. Pre-open gains in the mega-cap space have bolstered contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while futures tied to the Dow industrials are lower. Market participants are digesting news that President-elect Trump said he will impose large tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and increase tariffs on Chinese imports. Buying interest in the 10-year Treasury note, which is most sensitive to changes in inflation, dissipated following the tariff news. The 10-year yield is up one basis point to 4.28%, while the 2-year yield is down three basis points to 4.24%. Retailers that reported earnings since yesterday’s close have garnered mixed responses. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied up to the all-time high at 6,017.31, but the sellers came in swiftly, and the index closed lower at 5,987.37. The RSI index did not test an old high… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 116 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 295 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias ahead of a holiday-shortened week. Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and close early on Friday, at 1:00 p.m. ET for equities and 2:00 p.m. ET for bonds. The upside skew is in response to a pullback in market rates. The 10-yr yield is down six basis points to 4.35%, and the 2-yr yield is down three basis points to 4.34%. Investors are buying interest in bonds following news that President-elect Trump nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. There’s no US economic data on today’s calendar. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,969.34 and is now back in the old trading range of 5,936.14-6,017.31. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are higher by .64%, which could see the old high of 6,017.31 tested today. Also, the ten-year treasury has moved lower after… Read More
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Headline News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation perked up in October, though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations. The consumer price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September. The readings were both in line with the Dow Jones estimates. The move was even more pronounced, excluding food and energy. Core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,983.99 and inside the upper Bollinger Band after briefly trying to rally at the opening of trading. The ten-year treasury yield closed higher at 4.44%, but the yield is lower this morning after the release of the October CPI report. The S&P 500 futures are also positive at 6,023.50 on the CPI news, which could see buying return to the markets. However, the internal indicators are overbought, which should make a test of the old highs difficult today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures are lower after another record finish for the major indices yesterday. Treasuries are falling under selling pressure, sending yields higher and keeping buying in check in equities. The 10-yr yield is up five basis points to 4.36%, and the 2-yr yield is up six basis points to 4.31%. Today’s economic data was limited to the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, which rose to 93.7 in October from 91.5 in September. Bitcoin continues to benefit from post-election buying, reaching a high above $89,000 earlier. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: After a four-day rally, the S&P 500 stalled at 6,017.31, and the index remained at the tip of the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI index did not make a new high and has yet to move into the overbought zone. Also, there has not been an 80% up-volume day since the election, so the election bump could be… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The stock market is poised to extend yesterday’s election-induced rally. Some names that reported earnings since yesterday’s close have garnered positive responses, contributing to the early bias and pre-open gains in mega caps. Treasury yields are slightly lower ahead of the open and will remain in focus today after the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 ET. The committee is expected to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%. In other central bank news, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to lower its bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, which was expected. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied 2.35% to close substantially higher at 5,929.04, and the volume was off the charts, with 4,168,372,992 shares traded. However, the up volume was only 70%, so we will… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 132 points and are trading 2.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 345 points and are trading 1.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1,360 points and are trading 3.2% above fair value. The Russell 2000 futures are up 6.1%. Seeing an outsized response following the news that Donald Trump has been declared the victor in the presidential election and that polling results point to the likelihood of a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, which is expected to pave the way for lower tax rates and deregulation. Treasury market participants are pricing in the prospect of stronger growth amid rumblings that they are also pricing in concerns about the budget deficit and national debt, as well as inflation heating up again. The 2-year note yield is up five basis points to 4.26%, and the 10-year note yield is up 15 basis points to 4.44%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 1.9% to 105.37. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 5,762.37 to close sharply higher at 5,782.76, and the RSI index closed above the… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 95 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. A sharp pre-open gain in shares of a large Communication Services name following strong quarterly results has boosted the broader equity market. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index (SOX) showed a 0.1% drop versus last week’s 6.7% slide. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 5,804.34, but buyers came, and the index closed higher at 5,832.92. Also, the ten-year treasury failed at the 4.29% resistance; this morning, the yield is currently at 4.26%. The Q3 GDP report came in under expectations, and the S&P 500 futures slightly changed this morning. We feel the trading could be light today before the release of the PCE inflation report tomorrow, and traders may already be holding off on trades in anticipation of next week’s election. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management… Read More
