Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open following yesterday’s afternoon rally. A drop in market rates has contributed to the positive bias despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around the situation in Israel and Gaza. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 5.00%, and the 10-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.70%. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.6% to $85.95/bbl after climbing 4.0% yesterday. In other news, the IMF lowered its 2024 global growth outlook to 2.9% from 3.0%. China’s troubled property developer Country Garden missed another bond payment and warned of liquidity pressures, stoking concerns that it may end up announcing a restructuring of its offshore debt, according to Reuters. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply past resistance at 4355.31 and closed higher at 4335.66, while the RSI also closed much higher at 47.26 in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 175 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open as participants react to the Israel-Hamas war. The bond market is closed today, but the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.4% to 106.52, reflecting some flight to safety trading. Concerns about a wider regional conflict are driving a big move in oil prices. WTI crude oil futures are up 4.0% to $86.08/bbl. Market participants are also looking ahead to the September CPI report (Thursday) and the start of the Q3 earnings season later this week. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply off support at 4231.10 to close higher at 4308.50, and the RSI also closed higher in support of the rally at 43.22. The total volume was only 2,474,125,824, and the up volume was only 73% of the total. So, the buying was not as intense as we would have liked to have seen. Markets could be choppy… Read More
Welcome to Lilly’s Counseling Session, where UGA alumni and Dawgs superfans John Lilly and Deven Patel preview this week’s game against the Kentucky Wildcats. Go Dawgs!
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 39 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Yesterday’s afternoon bounce has carried over this morning. Stock futures have a positive disposition, keying off the notion that the market is still oversold in the short term and due for a bounce. Things could shift, though, after the release of the September employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market participants will be closely watching the reaction of the Treasury market to this morning’s data. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points currently to 5.03%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 106.28. Separately, WTI crude oil futures are flattish this morning, up 0.1% to $82.35/bbl. Copper futures are up 1.4% to $3.60/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within the current trading range of 4231-10-4261.07, and both levels were tested yesterday. The RSI index remained flat, while the internal… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a mixed open after yesterday’s gains. Treasury yields are down again this morning, but lingering concerns about rates staying higher for longer remain an overhang for the stock market. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 5.03%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.72%. WTI crude oil futures have extended their losses this morning, down 1.2% to $83.21/bbl. Looking ahead, the weekly jobless claims report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Other economic data today includes the August Trade Balance at 8:30 a.m. ET and the weekly natural gas inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 opened lower below support at 4231.10 but rallied sharply to close higher at 42653.75, and the RSI index moved out of the oversold zone, closing at 35.14. The index also… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 52 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open. Treasury yields had been pressing higher overnight, but recent price action has rates declining, which is offering some support to stocks. The 2-yr note yield is down two points from yesterday at 5.13% after hitting 5.18% overnight. The 10-year note yield is down three basis points at 4.77% after hitting 4.88% overnight. There is also a growing sense that the stock market is oversold on a short-term basis and due for a bounce. Following yesterday’s close, the House voted 216-210 in an unprecedented action to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. House business will be at a standstill until a new Speaker is elected, which is adding to the political uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate at 5.50%, as expected. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 6.0%, with purchase applications declining 6.0% and refinance applications plunging… Read More
Welcome to the first edition of my Monthly Newsletter. I appreciate all of you for allowing me to fill your inbox with yet another thing you probably will never read. (Just kidding, hopefully.) Regardless, I wanted to provide everyone with something that I personally create every month, as opposed to a generic email or some other unoriginal newsletter type thing.
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 82 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 135 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, pressured again by rising market rates. The 10-yr note yield is up another six basis points to 4.73%, and the 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 5.12%. Yesterday’s disappointing price action, as evidenced by a 1.1% decline in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, has also contributed to the negative bias this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 4.10%, as expected, and Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) said one more rate hike this year may be needed, according to Bloomberg. In other news, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a motion to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as punishment for working with Democrats to fund the government, according to The New York Times. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off down to support at 4261.08 but rallied sharply late in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are mixed and somewhat flat this morning. Rising Treasury yields are still hanging over the market. The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points to 5.06% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.63%. Congress passed a bill to extend government funding through November 17, avoiding a government shutdown, according to The New York Times. Also, federal student loan payments resumed on October 1. In related federal news, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) says he will bring a motion to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from speakership this week as punishment for working with Democrats on government funding, according to CNN. China’s Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion in September, while Caixin Manufacturing and Services readings pointed to a slowing expansion. Japan’s Manufacturing PMI moved deeper into contraction territory. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied strongly to start the day… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 87 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 139 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Stocks are poised to continue rebounding at the open, supported by the belief that the market is oversold on a short-term basis and due for a bounce. The drop in market rates has also been supportive. The 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.55%, and the 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 5.03% The move in Treasuries follows a cooler-than-expected CPI reading for September from France, while the eurozone reading slowed to 4.3% yr/yr from 5.2% in August and the core reading slowed to 4.5% from 5.3%. Participants will receive the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at 8:30 a.m. ET in the form of the PCE and core-PCE price indices. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied near resistance at 4328.08 and closed higher at 4299.70. The trading came with better than average volume of 2,222,106,880, and the up volume was… Read More
