Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 95 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 122 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures are higher this morning following yesterday’s modest gains, supported by a further drop in market rates. Yields have pressed lower on some pleasing inflation data out of Germany, Spain, and Australia, and the notion that the Fed may cut rates in the first half of 2024. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is of this mindset, saying he believes the Fed may cut rates as soon as Q1 of 2024, according to Bloomberg. Other support factors include a positive response to earnings news, a fear of missing out on further gains, and month-end trading dynamics. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.71%, and the 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.29% but hit 4.25% overnight. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.8% to $77.76/bbl. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 0.3%, with purchase applications jumping 5.0% while refinance applications dropped 9.0%.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down nine points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 39 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Again, there isn’t much conviction on the part of buyers or sellers, so the major indices look poised for a soft open with a slight downward bias. Following four straight weeks of gains, there seems to be some buyer exhaustion, which is understandable. The bigger takeaway at this juncture, though, is that sellers still don’t have a pep in their step. The corporate news flow has picked up some, but none of it has had market-moving cachet. Today’s economic calendar features the November Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 100.0; Prior 102.6). Treasuries are mixed in front of the report and today’s $39 billion 7-yr note auction with results at 1:00 p.m. ET. WTI crude futures are up 0.9% to $75.55/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4550.43 after trading in another tight range. The index briefly tested support… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. This current disposition puts the cash market on track for a modestly lower start at the opening bell, coming off four consecutive weeks of gains. It won’t be regarded as surprising simply because the extent of gains since late October has fostered a sense that the market is due for a period of consolidation. However, the resilience to selling efforts — and the additional gains that continue to be achieved — have also created some seasonality momentum and a fear of missing out on further gains that have continued to provide support for the market. The corporate news flow coming off the weekend has been limited, but that will change as the week progresses. For now, most of the attention is on retail sales activity during Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and, now, Cyber Monday. In other developments, Israel and Hamas followed through with hostage/prisoner releases over the weekend, and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Major indices look poised to begin the day with modest gains, supported by mega-cap leadership. The 10-yr note yield sliding to 4.36%, down six basis points from yesterday, is also providing underlying support along with the seasonality trade ahead of economic releases this morning that include Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET), October Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET), and the Final November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET). In other news, Sam Altman is returning to OpenAI as CEO, and Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day pause in fighting that is part of a hostage release deal. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 103.64. WTI crude futures are down 2.9% to $75.52/bbl. As a reminder, the U.S. market will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 46 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 59 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures point to a lower open. This morning’s batch of earnings news from retailers has garnered mixed reactions. Today’s calendar features the October Existing Home Sales report, which will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Minutes from the October 31- November 1 FOMC meeting, which will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down one basis point to 4.89%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.41%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 continued to surprise after another rally took the index past two important resistance levels on Monday. The index closed higher at 4547.38 with low volume of 2,159,440,640, and the up volume was only 69%. Investors appear to be convinced the Federal Reserve is done raising rates and that corporate earnings will be strong in the fourth quarter. The RSI index finally… Read More
Headline News: U.S. markets are loving the October CPI report. Stock futures surged shortly after the closely watched inflation data, which gauges changes in a broad range of prices for consumer goods and services. The October report showed prices were broadly unchanged last month, while a reading on “core” prices — which strips out volatile food and energy — showed they increased by just 0.2%, less than the 0.3% jump that economists had expected. Treasury yields tumbled on the news, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.5%. It was down 14.4 basis points in recent trade at 4.475%. Market-based expectations for another interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve have declined substantially, with interest-rate futures showing expectations for a hike at the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2023 have sunk to virtually zero, down from 14.5% a day earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 4514.02 and above resistance at 4511.99 on Friday. The index moved out of a three-day base in the process and is now in a position to take out potential resistance at 4521.454. However, the RSI index is on the verge of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. There is not a lot of conviction again this morning as participants digest a big batch of earnings and the notion that the market is due for a consolidation period following its extended winning streak. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.95%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.55%. On a related note, there is a $24 billion 30-year bond auction today. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET. China’s CPI decreased 0.2% year-over-year in October, and PPI was down 2.6% year-over-year. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.0% to $76.06/bbl. In other news, the TV/Theatrical Negotiating Committee voted unanimously to approve a tentative agreement with the AMPTP, ending the strike. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 50-day moving average at 434.3.46 and failed on Wednesday. However, the S&P 500 finished higher, which… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 37 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Equity futures point to a flattish open for the major indices. There is not a lot of conviction from buyers or sellers this morning as investors wait to see if the rally will continue. The S&P 500 has logged a gain in seven consecutive sessions, while the NASDAQ’s winning streak is running at eight sessions. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.58%, and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.94%. On a related note, there is a $40 billion 10-yr note auction today. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 2.5% after a 2.1% decline last week. Purchase applications climbed 3.0%, and refinance applications increased 2.0% from last week. Other economic data today includes: (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P… Read More
We have all been there, young and adult, just starting a full-time job and not sure how to organize my finances: I remember asking – what is my first priority?
. Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading fractionally below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 86 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open, driven by normal selling activity after big gains last week. The 10-year note yield is down four basis points to 4.62%, and the 2-year note yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.94%. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) said in an interview that he is not convinced rate hikes are over, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.35%, as expected, and also changed some of the language in its policy statement, fueling speculation that additional hikes are not being planned at this time. China reported a smaller-than-expected $56.53 billion October trade surplus (expected surplus of $82.00 bln; last surplus of $77.71 bln). Imports jumped by a much better than expected 3.0% year-over-year (expected -4.8%), and exports sank -6.4% year-over-year versus an expected -3.3% decline. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead… Read More
