Headline News: Equity futures are pointing to a higher open this morning, following last week’s action that sent the major averages to record-high levels. Shares of a large semiconductor company are surging in the pre-market after the company announced a 6-gigawatt agreement to power a next-generation AI infrastructure. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has persisted through the weekend, with The New York Times reporting that negotiations remain deadlocked ahead of another Senate vote on continuing resolution tonight. The equity market has largely overlooked the shutdown, as the S&P 500 climbed to new record highs multiple times last week. There is no economic data on the docket today, and it is a relatively light week for data overall. However, some analysts have concerns that a prolonged data blackout resulting from the shutdown could complicate the market’s (and the Fed’s) view of the economy. In global news, Japan’s Nikkei (+4.8%) also hit fresh record highs following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of LDP, who is expected to become prime minister after a full parliamentary vote in mid-October. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded to a new all-time high of 6,750.87, but sellers… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a lower opening after the major averages closed modestly higher yesterday and solidified a strong month of September. The federal government shut down at midnight last night, and while the market has largely expected this for some time, there are some lingering concerns about extensive government layoffs and the delay of key economic data ahead of the October FOMC meeting. Today’s economic data, which includes the September ISM Manufacturing Index will be unaffected, though Friday’s Employment Situation Report risks being unreleased. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended September 27 decreased 12.7%, from a prior increase of 0.6%. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close higher at 6,688.46, with the RSI once again moving higher in support of the advance. However, futures are down 0.40% this morning following the government shutdown. U.S. markets have been through this scenario before, and history suggests there is usually little long-term impact unless the shutdown drags on. If selling does emerge today, we expect the 20-day moving average at 6,592.44 to provide a key area of support and hold if tested. We are currently Intermediate-term cautious and short-term bullish. John… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly lower open this morning after the major averages finished with modest gains in yesterday’s action. Congressional leaders from both parties failed to reach a deal on government funding, making a government shutdown likely. The Senate will vote again today on a resolution that looks to fund the government through November 21, according to Politico. CNBC reports that if a shutdown occurs, this week’s Employment Situation Report, along with other key economic data releases, will not be released, further complicating the market’s expectations for additional rate cuts this year. The market will receive a few economic data points this morning, including the September Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 ET. Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson (FOMC voting member) stated in a speech this morning, “I see the risks to employment as tilted to the downside and risks to inflation to the upside,” though Mr. Jefferson did not offer a definitive opinion on the future monetary policy path Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range and finished slightly lower at 6,661.21. The index has now established a two-day base, which we expect to continue developing through the remainder of the week. The… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are higher this morning after a week that saw the major averages finish with modest losses, though a strong rebound session on Friday limited the week-to-date losses as strong income and spending data supported growth hopes. President Trump will meet with congressional leaders of both parties today ahead of the government funding deadline tomorrow night, according to Politico. President Trump has previously stated that a shutdown could result in the firing of thousands of government workers if a deal is not reached. On the policy front, the market’s expectation for a series of rate cuts this year has been somewhat tempered in the wake of stronger-than-expected labor data and looming inflation concerns. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (FOMC nonvoting member) told CNBC that the current environment is “a challenging time for monetary policy.” This morning’s economic data is limited to the 10:00 ET release of August Pending Home Sales, though Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll Report for September will be closely watched. In trade developments, The Wall Street Journal reports that Chinese President Xi wants President Trump to oppose Taiwanese independence in exchange for a trade deal. Bloomberg reports that South Korea’s National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac stated… Read More
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Headline News: The stock market is on track for a modestly higher start this morning, following yesterday’s retreat that saw considerable weakness in mega-cap and tech names. All of the “magnificent seven” names are slightly higher in the pre-market, with investors having been quick to buy any dips in recent weeks. Headlines are quiet this morning, and the market has only a small slate of earnings reports and economic data to assess. August New Home Sales data (Briefing.com consensus: 650k) releases at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended September 20 increased 0.3%, from a prior increase of 29.7%. With a lack of key macro catalysts in play this morning, the market will largely be left to its own momentum to reverse course back toward record territory. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,656.92, with the RSI dipping back below the 70 level, signaling the potential for additional selling pressure. The 20-day moving average continues to accelerate higher and may provide near-term support if tested. Trading activity is likely to moderate over the next couple of sessions as investors turn their focus to Friday morning’s release… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures indicate a flat opening this morning, following mega-cap tech strength that led the major averages to new record highs yesterday. Headlines are quiet this morning, although the market will receive a few economic data points. The Q2 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus: -$302.1B) releases at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the preliminary September S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET. The market will also hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell (FOMC voting member) and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (FOMC voting member) today on the heels of last week’s 25-basis point rate cut. Chipmakers contributed to yesterday’s gains in the index level, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index advancing 1.6%. In Washington, Politico reports that President Trump is set to meet with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer ahead of the government funding deadline. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 extended its rally to another all-time high, closing at 6,693.75. The RSI has confirmed the advance but now sits firmly in overbought territory, signaling stretched conditions. Notably, up-volume accounted for only 55% of total volume, indicating weaker buyer participation compared to prior breakout sessions.… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is poised for a lower opening this morning, following strong performances across mega-cap names that sent the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and DJIA to record highs on Friday. Politico reports that Democratic leaders have requested a meeting with President Trump ahead of the looming government funding deadline, with the president remarking he would “love to meet with them, but I don’t think it’s going to have any impact.” In geopolitical news, President Trump will address the United Nations assembly tomorrow and meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to The Hill. Strengthening expectations for rate cuts at the October and December FOMC meetings drove the major averages to fresh record highs several times last week. Today, the market will hear from New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and Fed Governor Stephen Miran, all voting members of the FOMC. While there is no notable economic data today, Friday’s PCE Price Index for August will be the market’s next key inflation reading. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high of 6,664.36, with the RSI index confirming the breakout. This suggests the uptrend… Read More
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Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher open after yesterday’s mega-cap-led action saw the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 secure new all-time intraday and closing highs, with the S&P 500 closing above the 6,600 mark for the first time. The September FOMC meeting kicks off this morning, bringing several notable developments to recent headlines. A federal appeals court has determined that Fed Governor Lisa Cook cannot be fired before the meeting, upholding a lower court ruling that prevented her firing as the lawsuit plays out, according to CNBC. Ms. Cook will therefore be voting in this week’s meeting, as will Stephen Miran, whose nomination as a Fed Governor was confirmed by the Senate yesterday evening. The Wall Street Journal reports that Mr. Miran will retain his current role as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, taking unpaid leave while fulfilling his duties as a Fed Governor. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted in a CNBC interview this morning that the current plan is for Mr. Miran to return to his White House role when his term as Fed Governor expires in January, at which time another person will be appointed. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets:… Read More
