Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 45 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 128 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower, reflecting some regular profit-taking interest after another record high for the S&P 500 yesterday. Since yesterday’s close, some earnings results garnered negative responses, contributing to the downside bias. Treasury yields are slightly lower, but that hasn’t translated into support for equities. The 10-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.50%, and the 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 4.25%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,144.15. However, it’s worth noting that up volume accounted for only 43% of the total trading volume, indicating a lack of strong buying conviction. Additionally, the RSI index failed to reach a new high and continues to show negative divergence, which could signal waning momentum. Key support remains at 6,128.18, and we maintain the view that if… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 115 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. There’s not a lot of conviction in early trading after yesterday’s positive finish. Pre-open declines in the mega cap space have contributed to modest downside moves in futures linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials, along with negative responses to some earnings news. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: It looks like the S&P 500 is gaining strong momentum, breaking past resistance at 6,099.97 and closing at 6,115.07. This suggests bullish sentiment, with the next major resistance level being the all-time high at 6,128.18. Given the upcoming three-day weekend, trading activity might be muted today, possibly leading to consolidation before another push higher next week. Meanwhile, the ten-year Treasury yield is moving lower, closing at 4.54% and staying within the 4.49%-4.67% range. This could be supportive of equities, as lower yields typically make stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Going forward, key factors to watch… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 99 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 84 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs. President Trump formally imposed previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Treasury yields are higher, adding to the pressure on equities. The 10-yr yield is up five basis points to 4.54%, and the 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 4.29%. Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress begins today. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey dropped to 102.8 in January from 105.1 in December. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within a narrow range, maintaining its position in the middle of the 6,017.31 to 6,099.97 trading range. As investors await the release of tomorrow morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, we anticipate that trading activity will mirror today’s cautious approach. Additionally, a notable development is the 20-day moving average crossing above the 50-day moving average. This bullish signal… Read More
Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January, furthering the case for a stable labor market that allows the Federal Reserve time as it contemplates its next policy move, ADP reported Wednesday.
The payrolls processing firm said companies created a net 183,000 jobs in the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December, a number that was revised sharply upward from the initial figure of 122,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 150,000.
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early trading features mixed action. Contracts linked to the NASDAQ 100 are higher, while futures tied to the S&P 500 and Dow industrials are little changed. Participants are in wait-and-see mode ahead of earnings news from some of the world’s largest companies after today’s close. The FOMC decision is at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The committee is expected to keep the target range for the fed fund rate at 4.25-4.50%, so more attention will be paid to Fed Chair Powell’s tone and remarks. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second day, closing at 6.067.70, above the resistance level of 6,053.58. The index is higher by 1.8% since touching the 20-day moving average on Monday and is now in a position to gain back all the losses from Monday’s selloff. However, the RSI index… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up two points and are trading in-line with fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are higher after yesterday’s AI-led slide. Indicated opening gains are slim compared to the scope of yesterday’s losses. Treasury yields are higher after sliding in response to the stock market scare yesterday. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.56%. Political news still dominates headlines after President Trump said he wants tariffs larger than 2.5% on foreign pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, according to Bloomberg. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, falling below the 20-day moving average. The buyers stepped in, and the index rallied to close at 6,012.28 and is now just under potential resistance at 6,017.31. Also, the down volume was only 52% of the total volume, and the RSI index did not close below the 50 level. We feel the buyers could return today, push the S&P… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 97 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. There is a festering sense that the market is due for a consolidation period, given how far it has come in a short time. The S&P 500, which set a record closing high yesterday, is up 6.0% from its low on Jan. 13 (a span of just eight trading sessions), while the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.5%. Separately, the Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, as expected. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 107.62 while the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.64% in front of today’s economic data, which will include the preliminary January S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the December Existing Home Sales and final January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher for the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 72 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are lower after the former reached a fresh record high yesterday. The negative disposition is related to rising Treasury yields. The 10-yr yield is up four basis points to 4.64%, which is still well below its high yield (4.80%) last week. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open, traded at a new intraday all-time high at 6,100.81, and closed at 6,086.37. The index has rallied 5.5.% off the 1/13/2025 low of 5,773.31 and is now at the upper Bollinger Band. Also, the RSI index has not moved higher simultaneously and is now negatively divergent. So, we feel the index could pull back to the new support level at 6,053.58 today and hold. We would also like to see the index form a multiday base before potentially closing at a new all-time high.… Read More
