Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 23 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 97 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 194 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Politics are in play this morning with President Trump back in office following yesterday’s inauguration, which was followed immediately by a slate of executive orders undoing a lot of the Biden administration’s policies and the declaration of a national energy emergency. Notably missing from the orders were decisive tariff actions. The futures market gathered some positive momentum on that understanding, but cooled off some after President Trump later said he is thinking about 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico starting February 1. Still, the futures market seems enthused by the thought of deregulation and friendlier business/tax policy under the new administration and is reserving some tariff judgment until it sees them in action (and in the data). A relatively calm Treasury market at the moment is helping in this transition. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.26%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 48 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 217 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 310 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials indicate a higher open on the first session of the year. Solid pre-open gains in mega cap names with no specific catalysts have contributed to the upside bias. A drop in market rates has also supported the positive skew. The 2-yr yield is down three basis points to 4.21% and the 10-yr yield is down five basis points to 4.52%. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for December 17-31 dropped 21.9%. Other data today include the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 ET, the final December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 ET, the November Construction Spending at 10:00 ET, and weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,881.63, and the RSI index also closed lower at 41.10. However, this morning, the S&P… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 200 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 349 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower after Friday’s tech-led declines. Ongoing selling pressure in the mega-cap space has contributed to the negative bias ahead of the last sessions of the year. Treasury yields are lower. The 2-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.29%, and the 10-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.58%. Today’s economic lineup features the December Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET and the November Pending Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 50-day moving average at 5,940.82 and held, but after a rally off that level, the index closed lower at 5,970.84. The RSI index closed lower at 48.57, signaling the potential for more selling today. The 50-day moving average is now a potential support level, and then the 12/20/2024 low of 5,832.30. The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 55 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 180 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower. Pre-open losses in the mega cap space have contributed to the negative bias. Rising market rates have also limited early buying. The 10-yr yield is at 4.44% and the 2-yr yield is at 4.29%. The vibe in the market may shift following the release of the November Retail Sales report at 8:30 ET. Other data today includes the November Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report at 9:15 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at 6,074.08 and is now back in the recent trading range. The RSI index also closed higher at 61.62 in support of the rally. So, an eight-day base has formed after the post-election rally that stopped at 6,099.97, and we are hopeful the S&P 500 can achieve another new all-time high before the end of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up nine points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up six points and are trading in-line with fair value. Early trading has a mixed vibe ahead of the November Consumer Price Index at 8:30 ET. Treasuries are mixed ahead of the report, which is the last check on inflation ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 4.17%, and the 10-yr yield, which is most sensitive to changes in inflation, is up four basis points to 4.25%. Other data today include the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which rose 5.4% following last week’s 2.8% increase. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories is released at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,034.91 and is now outside the three-day trading range. The new potential support level is the 20-day moving average at 5,995.59, and we feel that level will hold if tested today. However, the internal indicators remain overbought after the impressive post-election rally. So,… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down two points and trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up ten points and trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 20 points and trading 0.1% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are flattish. Market participants lack conviction after the S&P 500 and DJIA logged record highs last week. The US Dollar Index is 0.5% higher at 106.26 after President-elect Trump said he would enact 100% tariffs on countries moving away from the dollar. The 10-year Treasury note yield is two basis points higher at 4.20%, and the 2-year yield is up three basis points from Friday at 4.19%. Today’s economic releases include the November ISM Manufacturing Index and the October Construction Spending report at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,023.38, but the up volume was only 59% of the total volume. To confirm the breakout to a new high soon, there needs to be an 80% up volume day. Also, the ten-year Treasury note closed at… Read More
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Headline News: Revised figures showed that the U.S. grew at a 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter, which indicates that the economy is headed into the crucial holiday shopping season with plenty of momentum. The increase in gross domestic product, the economy’s official scorecard, was unchanged from an initial 2.8% estimate last month. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast GDP to remain the same. (MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied once again and closed at a new all-time high of 6,021.63, while the RSI index only closed at 66.09. Also, the up volume only came in at 43% of the overall total, showing the buying was not intense. So, the S&P 500 needs a follow-through day of 80% or more up volume to confirm a new uptrend is potentially starting. The ten-year treasury is currently at a yield of 4.25% and well below the support at 4.29%, which could be a bullish factor in today’s trading. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial… Read More
