Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning after the major averages took a step back yesterday amid a poor day for tech and mega-cap stocks. Software, semiconductors, and other tech names faced a retreat that bled into other growth areas and saw the S&P 500 dip below its 50-day moving average before finding some support, while the NASDAQ Composite closed below its own 50-day moving average. Headlines are fairly quiet this morning, though investors are currently receiving another sizable batch of earnings reports. One of the world’s largest Communication Services companies reports after the close today, while one of the world’s largest Consumer Discretionary companies reports tomorrow, amid what has been a tough week so far for the mega-caps. The market will also receive several economic data releases this morning, including the January ADP Employment Change Report (Briefing.com consensus 43k) at 8:15 a.m. and the January ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 53.7%) at 10:00 a.m. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended January 31 decreased 8.9% from a prior decrease of 8.5%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a wide range and closed sharply lower at 6,917.81.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher opening this morning after stocks posted solid gains in their first February session yesterday. After an underwhelming finish to the previous week, the major averages rebounded broadly yesterday, with firm expansion in the January ISM Manufacturing Index (52.6%; Briefing.com consensus: 48.3%) boosting the market’s growth outlook. The market will not receive a lift from today’s scheduled economic data, as the partial government shutdown has delayed the release of the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report. The House will vote today to reopen the government. The bill funds most government agencies until September 30 & DHS until February 13. House Speaker Mike Johnson is confident the bill will pass after President Trump endorsed it without any changes, according to NBC News. In the meantime, earnings remain a key driver of price action, with over 100 S&P 500 companies set to report this week, including a few mega-cap tech companies. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 opened lower and below the 20-day moving average at 6,976.44, but buyers stepped in early and pushed the index higher toward resistance at 6,986.33. Sellers emerged at that level,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the major averages finished lower on Friday and mostly lower for the week. Stocks had a somewhat choppy previous week following mixed reactions to a batch of highly anticipated mega-cap earnings reports. The market will have plenty of high-profile earnings reports to assess this week, including those from a few Mag 7 companies. This week will also feature some key employment data, including the December JOLTS report on Tuesday and the January Employment Situation Report on Friday. In Washington, the Senate has passed a bill to fund most government agencies through September 30 and DHS through February 13. The government will be shut down at least until Tuesday, as House Democrats oppose the funding bill and some conservatives want to attach an election reform bill to it, according to Politico. Elsewhere, Axios reports that the Trump administration told Iran it is ready to meet and negotiate a deal, which has weighed on oil prices this morning. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below its 20-day moving average at 6,929.03, but buyers stepped in and the index managed to close higher at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after stocks finished mostly lower yesterday in reaction to a slate of mega-cap earnings. President Trump confirmed that he will nominate former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the next Fed chair. Futures are well off their earlier lows after the announcement, and treasuries have remained steady. Precious metals prices are facing a sharp pullback this morning after an impressive run to record highs. Gold futures are down about 4%, while silver is down about 11%. Meanwhile, oil is modestly lower despite The New York Times reporting that President Trump is considering new military options against Iran to target nuclear and missile facilities. In Washington, the White House & Democrats have reached a deal to fund most of the government through September 30 and the DHS through February 13. The Senate hopes to vote today after disagreements last night prevented a vote. The House is expected to vote on Monday, which means the government shutdown will occur over the weekend, according to Politico. On the data front, the market will receive the December PPI (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) readings today as… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning after stocks drifted modestly lower from yesterday’s record highs. While yesterday’s release of the November CPI (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) came in line with expectations and Core CPI (0.2; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) offered a slight surprise, the data did not alter the market’s expected timeline for Fed easing this year. Investors now await the 8:30 a.m. release of the November PPI (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) and Core PPI (0.2%) for further insight into producer-level inflation trends. Additionally, a slate of earnings reports from the major banks is trickling through this morning. The Supreme Court could issue a ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs today, which could act as another catalyst, particularly for tariff-sensitive sectors. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions remain high, with President Trump threatening “strong action” if Iranian officials begin hanging protesters, according to CBS News. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,963.74 after testing its all-time high, while the RSI also moved lower, finishing at 60.67. The index has now established a trading range between 6,920.34 and 6,986.63. We believe the lower end of this range could be tested… Read More
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Headline News: The U.S. labor market ended 2025 on a soft note, with job creation in December less than expected, according to a report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 50,000 for the month, lower than the downwardly revised 56,000 in November and short of the Dow Jones estimate for 73,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, below the forecast of 4.5%. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,921.46, finishing just above the key resistance level at 6,920.34. Trading volume was light as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the December unemployment report. The report showed job gains of 50,000, below the 70,000 expected. Notably, the unemployment rate declined from 4.6% to 4.4%, effectively removing the likelihood of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Despite this, S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.33% this morning, indicating that investor sentiment remains bullish heading into today’s session. We are currently Intermediate-term cautious and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly lower open this morning after the S&P 500 and DJIA both notched record highs in yesterday’s action. The gains came on broad strength, with semiconductors, cyclical stocks, health care names, and small caps among the strongest performers. The energy sector gave back Monday’s gains that followed the capture and ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. armed forces, though developments around the country are once again making headlines this morning. President Trump said via Truth Social, “Interim authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 million barrels of high quality, sanctioned oil, to the United States of America. This oil will be sold at its market price.” Additionally, Politico reports that the president will meet with oil executives on Friday to discuss a plan to enter Venezuela. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, though corporate news items continue to trickle in at a higher pace than in previous weeks as investors return from holiday. The market also has several data points to assess this morning, including the December ADP Employment Change Report at 8:15 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 45k), the December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET (Briefing.com… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open at the start of the holiday-shortened week. The major averages finished mixed last week, with tech names posting strong gains on Thursday and Friday. An uptick in sentiment around the AI trade helped the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite reclaim their 50-day moving average. Momentum seems to have extended through the weekend, with mega-cap tech mostly higher in the premarket. Headlines are relatively quiet, with no economic data releases scheduled, though tomorrow’s session will feature a full data slate. There are no companies set to report earnings this week. On the policy front, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (FOMC voting member in 2026) told The Wall Street Journal that she expects rates to remain unchanged for some months, a view that reflects last week’s data and Fed commentary, which did little to alter market expectations for further easing. The market will close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and remain closed all day on Thursday for the Christmas holiday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied back above its 20-day moving average and closed back inside the 6,812.91–6,869.91 trading range. The RSI briefly moved above the… Read More
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