Headline News: Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP up just 1.4%, badly missing estimate. The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to increase 3% from a year ago in December, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Gross domestic product was projected to rise at a 2.5% annualized pace in the fourth quarter. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed little changed at 6,861.89 after trading in a tight range throughout the session. This morning’s GDP growth and PCE inflation reports have not acted as immediate market movers, but as the data continues to be fully digested, the index could open lower. If selling pressure develops at the open, the key support level at 6,858.47 could be tested for a fourth time this year. The repeated testing of this level raises the question of whether buyers remain willing to defend it. A confirmed break below this level would likely weaken near-term technical conditions. The next important support level remains at 6,780.13. This level represents a more significant technical threshold and should attract buyers if tested. Holding above that level would help preserve the broader consolidation pattern currently in place. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning as several mega-cap tech names make nice moves higher in the premarket. Solid mega-cap performance helped the major averages eke out slight gains yesterday despite a choppy session of mixed strength. While tech finished modestly higher, software names remained under pressure amid fears of AI disruption. Earnings are still in full swing, generating notable stock-specific moves both yesterday and this morning. The market also has quite a few economic data releases to look forward to this morning, including December housing starts (Briefing.com consensus 1320K) and building permits (Briefing.com consensus 1412K), January Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%), and the January FOMC meeting minutes. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended February 14 increased 2.8%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off to the support level at 6,780.13, where buyers stepped in and helped the index recover to close higher at 6,843.22. However, the up volume accounted for only 52% of total volume, and the RSI index did not move higher, indicating limited buying conviction behind the rebound. As a result,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning to start the holiday-abbreviated week. Stocks finished mostly higher on Friday, but the major averages still finished lower across the board with week-to-date losses wider than 1.0%. Mega-cap stocks performed poorly, while the recent fears of AI disruption that have weighed heavily on software names rippled into some other pockets of the market. Tech stocks are lower in the pre-market this morning, weighing on equity futures. Headlines are relatively quiet, though there is a smattering of earnings releases in the fold. On the geopolitical front, Financial Times reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has assured European leaders that the U.S. will not leave NATO. Separately, Reuters reports that the U.S. and Iran are holding diplomatic talks today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a wide range on Friday but ultimately closed little changed at 6,836.17. This morning, S&P 500 futures are down 0.53%, indicating the index may open below the potential support level at 6,780.13, which could accelerate selling pressure early in the session. If that level fails to hold, the next potential support level is near 6,721.43. A decline to… Read More
Headline News: The cost of goods and services rose at a slower annual rate than expected in January, providing hope that the nagging U.S. inflation problem could be easing. The consumer price index for January accelerated 2.4% from the same time a year ago, down 0.3 percentage point from the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That pulled the inflation rate down to where it was the month after President Donald Trump in April 2025 announced aggressive tariffs on U.S. imports. Excluding food and energy, core CPI was also up 2.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an annual rate of 2.5% for both readings. On a monthly basis, the all-items index was up a seasonally adjusted 0.2% while core gained 0.3%. The forecast had been 0.3% for both. (Jeff Cox, CNBC |) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, closing at 6,832.76, down 1.56% on the day. The RSI index also moved lower and is now below the critical 50 level, confirming that downside momentum has increased. The index closed slightly below the previously identified support level at 6,858.47, marking the fourth test of that level. Repeated tests of support tend to… Read More
Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 20-day moving average at 6,924.16, where buyers stepped in and the index closed higher at 6,941.47. The index has now formed a two-day base, and the RSI index is also stabilizing, indicating that the consolidation of the recent gains we have been anticipating is beginning to materialize. If trading can remain within this newly established base, an attempt at a new all-time high appears increasingly likely in the near term. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving averages are used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for… Read More
Headline News: U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.3% Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 55,000 in January while the unemployment rate held at 4.4%, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate. (Jeff Cox, CNBC |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,841.81 after briefly attempting to rally for a third consecutive session. The pullback suggests that buyers remain cautious near recent resistance levels, and the index has yet to establish sustained upside momentum. This morning’s U.S. payrolls report came in better than expected, and S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.44%. That stronger-than-expected employment data could attract buyers at the open, particularly if investors interpret the report as supportive of continued economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns. If buying pressure builds, the index could attempt to move toward and potentially close above the key resistance level at 7,002.28. A decisive close above that level would represent a meaningful technical development, especially if accompanied by strong breadth. From a technical standpoint, volume will be critical. If today’s session closes with a volume of 80% or more of the total volume, that would signal broad participation and increase the probability… Read More
Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for a second day, closing higher at 6,964.82. The index should be able to hold these levels for several days before attempting to break out above the resistance level at 6,986.33. The RSI index is not rising at the same pace as the S&P 500, suggesting a base needs to form at these levels. Today’s trading is likely to remain in a tight range as the index consolidates the recent gains. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving averages are used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for… Read More
Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply and closed higher at 6,932.30, finishing above the 20-day moving average. The RSI index moved back above the 50 level, and up volume represented 81% of total volume. These signals suggest the recent downtrend may be complete, and an attempt at the prior high could occur as early as this week. While some short-term consolidation is possible, the technical backdrop has clearly improved. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving averages are used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term ones. Signals can be derived from… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning after the major averages took a step back yesterday amid a poor day for tech and mega-cap stocks. Software, semiconductors, and other tech names faced a retreat that bled into other growth areas and saw the S&P 500 dip below its 50-day moving average before finding some support, while the NASDAQ Composite closed below its own 50-day moving average. Headlines are fairly quiet this morning, though investors are currently receiving another sizable batch of earnings reports. One of the world’s largest Communication Services companies reports after the close today, while one of the world’s largest Consumer Discretionary companies reports tomorrow, amid what has been a tough week so far for the mega-caps. The market will also receive several economic data releases this morning, including the January ADP Employment Change Report (Briefing.com consensus 43k) at 8:15 a.m. and the January ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 53.7%) at 10:00 a.m. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended January 31 decreased 8.9% from a prior decrease of 8.5%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a wide range and closed sharply lower at 6,917.81.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher opening this morning after stocks posted solid gains in their first February session yesterday. After an underwhelming finish to the previous week, the major averages rebounded broadly yesterday, with firm expansion in the January ISM Manufacturing Index (52.6%; Briefing.com consensus: 48.3%) boosting the market’s growth outlook. The market will not receive a lift from today’s scheduled economic data, as the partial government shutdown has delayed the release of the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report. The House will vote today to reopen the government. The bill funds most government agencies until September 30 & DHS until February 13. House Speaker Mike Johnson is confident the bill will pass after President Trump endorsed it without any changes, according to NBC News. In the meantime, earnings remain a key driver of price action, with over 100 S&P 500 companies set to report this week, including a few mega-cap tech companies. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 opened lower and below the 20-day moving average at 6,976.44, but buyers stepped in early and pushed the index higher toward resistance at 6,986.33. Sellers emerged at that level,… Read More
