Headline News: The U.S. labor market ended 2025 on a soft note, with job creation in December less than expected, according to a report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 50,000 for the month, lower than the downwardly revised 56,000 in November and short of the Dow Jones estimate for 73,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, below the forecast of 4.5%. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,921.46, finishing just above the key resistance level at 6,920.34. Trading volume was light as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the December unemployment report. The report showed job gains of 50,000, below the 70,000 expected. Notably, the unemployment rate declined from 4.6% to 4.4%, effectively removing the likelihood of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Despite this, S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.33% this morning, indicating that investor sentiment remains bullish heading into today’s session. We are currently Intermediate-term cautious and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists Futures trading is speculative,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly lower open this morning after the S&P 500 and DJIA both notched record highs in yesterday’s action. The gains came on broad strength, with semiconductors, cyclical stocks, health care names, and small caps among the strongest performers. The energy sector gave back Monday’s gains that followed the capture and ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. armed forces, though developments around the country are once again making headlines this morning. President Trump said via Truth Social, “Interim authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 million barrels of high quality, sanctioned oil, to the United States of America. This oil will be sold at its market price.” Additionally, Politico reports that the president will meet with oil executives on Friday to discuss a plan to enter Venezuela. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, though corporate news items continue to trickle in at a higher pace than in previous weeks as investors return from holiday. The market also has several data points to assess this morning, including the December ADP Employment Change Report at 8:15 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 45k), the December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET (Briefing.com… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open at the start of the holiday-shortened week. The major averages finished mixed last week, with tech names posting strong gains on Thursday and Friday. An uptick in sentiment around the AI trade helped the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite reclaim their 50-day moving average. Momentum seems to have extended through the weekend, with mega-cap tech mostly higher in the premarket. Headlines are relatively quiet, with no economic data releases scheduled, though tomorrow’s session will feature a full data slate. There are no companies set to report earnings this week. On the policy front, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (FOMC voting member in 2026) told The Wall Street Journal that she expects rates to remain unchanged for some months, a view that reflects last week’s data and Fed commentary, which did little to alter market expectations for further easing. The market will close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and remain closed all day on Thursday for the Christmas holiday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied back above its 20-day moving average and closed back inside the 6,812.91–6,869.91 trading range. The RSI briefly moved above the… Read More
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Headline News: Equity futures point to a flattish opening amid another relatively quiet morning as investors await tomorrow’s FOMC decision. The market has nearly priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, though the expectation is that the Fed will dampen the odds of an additional cut in January. Stocks mostly retreated yesterday, with 10 S&P 500 sectors finishing lower, though a solid gain in the information technology sector limited losses and kept the major averages at or above their December unchanged levels. A large semiconductor company is up again in the premarket this morning after President Trump announced via Truth Social that he will allow the company to sell its advanced H200 chips to China in exchange for the U.S. government receiving 25% of the profits. Investors will receive a modest batch of economic data today, including the preliminary Q3 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus 3.5%) and Unit Labor Cost (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%) readings, along with the September JOLTS Job Openings Report. The November NFIB Small Business Optimism checked in at 99.0 (Briefing.com consensus 98.3) from a prior reading of 98.2. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 6,869.91 resistance level, but sellers… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after Friday’s action saw the major averages close with slight gains, capping a week of modest gains. Stocks drifted higher for the bulk of last week after a relatively sharp slide last Monday that came as a result of a cryptocurrency sell-off. Action in recent sessions has been somewhat muted, with some back-and-forth posturing ahead of this week’s FOMC decision. The market is largely expecting the Fed to deliver a “hawkish cut” on Wednesday, meaning expectations for further easing in January have remained low. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns an 89.6% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, but just a 21.8% probability to an additional cut in January. On the trade front, the Supreme Court could rule as soon as this month on President Trump’s tariff authority as companies file lawsuits to get refunds, according to The Washington Post. There are no economic data releases scheduled for today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded above its current resistance at 6,869.91 early in the session, but sellers stepped in, and the index settled at 6,870.40. The market has now formed… Read More
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Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after yesterday’s action saw the major averages post losses amid a sharp cryptocurrency sell-off in the first session of December. The energy sector was the only real winner sector-wise yesterday, though the technology sector shed a 1.3% early loss, which substantially improved the standing of the major averages. Mega-cap tech names are mostly higher this morning against a quiet backdrop of news flow. The market’s expectations for a December rate cut continue to hover just under 90% (87.2% to be exact), according to the CME FedWatch tool, and there are no economic data releases on the calendar this morning. While the market received only a slim batch of earnings reports after yesterday’s close, several tech stocks delivered notable moves in response. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed little changed at 6,812.63 and did not test the potential resistance at 6,869.91. The trading pattern was typical of a market that has rallied for five consecutive sessions, with investors taking a more measured approach. We feel the trading could be muted again today as the S&P 500 works to build a base and consolidate… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning after stocks made a nice run during last week’s holiday-shortened action, which mitigated much of the losses incurred during the first few weeks of November. The major averages all gained more than 3.0% last week, enough for a mixed month. The S&P 500 closed slightly higher in November, as did the DJIA, while substantial losses across tech names earlier in the month prevented the Nasdaq Composite from extending its eight-month winning streak. Mega-cap tech is driving the premarket losses this morning, with all of the “magnificent seven” names currently down more than 0.5%. The end-of-month strength in equities is primarily attributed to a substantial increase in market expectations for a December rate cut from the Fed, which now stands at just under 90%. Bloomberg reports that President Trump said he knows who he will pick as the Fed Chair nominee, though he has not yet announced the candidate to the public. The market will receive the final November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET and the November ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly lower open after a solid start to the week that saw some confidence restored to tech, AI, and other momentum names yesterday. Strength across the mega-caps briefly pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite back across their 50-day moving averages, though they ended up closing just beneath the key technical level. The risk-on disposition of the market was once again boosted by another round of dovish Fed commentary, which saw the market’s implied probability of a December rate cut surpass 80%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s allies have essentially laid the groundwork for him to advocate for a December rate cut, despite the possibility of several dissents. Elsewhere, on the macro front, the market will receive a sizable batch of economic data this morning, which includes the September Producer Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), retail sales for September (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), and Consumer Confidence for November (Briefing.com consensus 93.3). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second straight day and closed sharply higher at 6,705.12. The RSI index also moved higher and… Read More
