Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening after yesterday’s rally, which saw mega-cap names surge amid solid participation from the broader market. News of the Senate passing a procedural vote to fund the government and end the ongoing shutdown provided an early boost to sentiment. However, the day was largely devoid of any directional catalysts. This morning is also quiet on the headline front, with several of the mega-cap names that drove yesterday’s gains seeing some profit-taking in the premarket after a solid advance. Yesterday’s rally showed renewed confidence in the AI trade, with chipmakers among the top performers. Investors will look to a large semiconductor’s financial analyst day today, with Reuters reporting that the company is expected to outline its chip business plan. Elsewhere, earnings continue to slow as November progresses, and data releases remain slim amid the government shutdown. The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index registered at 98.2 (Briefing.com consensus 98.3) from a prior reading of 98.8. The Treasury market will be closed for the Veterans Day holiday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 advanced sharply, finishing the session higher at 6,832.43 and reclaiming its position above the 20-day… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning after a somewhat tumultuous week characterized by weakness across the mega-caps. However, some late-week resilience kept the S&P 500 from closing under its 50-day moving average (6,669.00). Futures are boosted this morning by reports that the Senate has advanced a procedural measure by a vote of 60-40 to reopen and fund the government through January 30th. While Politico reports that the final passing of the bill will likely be delayed by several days, the market is enthused by a possible end to a shutdown that prevented the release of several key data reports and weighed on sentiment. Importantly, many of the mega-cap tech names that slipped last week are higher in the pre-market. Investors will not receive any economic data of note, as there are no releases scheduled for today. Meanwhile, a moderate slate of companies reported earnings before the open, though reports will become increasingly slimmer through the week as Q3 earnings are now mainly in the rearview. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply early in the session, but news of a potential breakthrough in the government shutdown brought in… Read More
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Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning in the wake of yesterday’s tech-led rally that sent the major averages to fresh record highs. A large semiconductor company was a key driver of the action, rising nearly 5.0% as investors reacted to a slate of announcements from the company’s GPU Technology Conference. The stock is up another 4.0% in the pre-market. Several meg-cap names will report their earnings this afternoon. Investors are currently digesting another sizable batch of earnings reports before the open. The market also eagerly anticipates a decision from the FOMC at 2:00 p.m. ET, widely expected to result in another 25-basis-point rate cut. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended October 25 increased 7.1%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, closing lower at 6,822.34 and holding just above the support level at 6,807.11. The RSI index also moved lower, confirming the market’s weakness. However, after the close, Amazon (AMZN) reported earnings that exceeded expectations, sending S&P 500 futures up by 0.77% ahead of the open. We expect the potential resistance at 6,902.34 to hold if tested today. We… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning in the wake of yesterday’s tech-led rally that sent the major averages to fresh record highs. A large semiconductor company was a key driver of the action, rising nearly 5.0% as investors reacted to a slate of announcements from the company’s GPU Technology Conference. The stock is up another 4.0% in the pre-market. Several meg-cap names will report their earnings this afternoon. Investors are currently digesting another sizable batch of earnings reports before the open. The market also eagerly anticipates a decision from the FOMC at 2:00 p.m. ET, which is widely expected to result in another 25-basis-point rate cut. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended October 25 increased 7.1%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 slipped to 6,890.59 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from signaling additional interest rate cuts. Markets had been looking for clearer guidance suggesting at least two reductions before year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.10%, reflecting a cautious reassessment of policy expectations and adding pressure to an already overbought equity market. With sentiment vulnerable to profit-taking, short-term… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning in the wake of yesterday’s tech-led rally that sent the major averages to fresh record highs. A large semiconductor company was a key driver of the action, rising nearly 5.0% as investors reacted to a slate of announcements from the company’s GPU Technology Conference. The stock is up another 4.0% in the pre-market. Several meg-cap names will report their earnings this afternoon. Investors are currently digesting another sizable batch of earnings reports before the open. The market also eagerly anticipates a decision from the FOMC at 2:00 p.m. ET, widely expected to result in another 25-basis-point rate cut. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended October 25 increased 7.1%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday all-time high of 6,911.30 before sellers stepped in, leaving the index to close slightly lower at 6,890.89, still marking a new closing high. The RSI continues to trend higher but has yet to confirm a new high, suggesting some loss of momentum. With the FOMC interest rate decision due later today, a mild pullback would not… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly higher open this morning, following yesterday’s action that saw mega-cap and tech names push the major averages to fresh record highs. Earnings reports have ramped up, with roughly one-third of all S&P 500 names set to report this week. Investors are currently receiving a hefty batch of reports this morning, though they will not see any mega-cap reports until tomorrow. Tomorrow also brings forth the October FOMC meeting, at which the market largely expects a 25-basis-point rate cut, which has served as an additional tailwind. Until then, investors had a wide swath of earnings to peruse, as well as the 10:00 ET release of the October Consumer Confidence Report (Briefing.com consensus: 94.2). On the trade front, President Trump has reiterated his belief that his Thursday meeting with Chinese President Xi will go well. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 surged to another new all-time high, closing at 6,875.16, and now sits entirely above the upper Bollinger Band—an indication that the index is overextended in the short term. This positioning makes it difficult to attract additional buyers today. Up volume accounted for only 65% of total volume, suggesting… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning after Friday’s action pushed the major averages to fresh record highs. The market carries its momentum into a much-anticipated week of potential catalysts. The FOMC is widely expected to provide another 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, with Friday’s softer-than-expected September Consumer Price Index (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) helping cement market expectations for cuts at the October and December meetings. On the trade front, the U.S. and China have reached a framework for a trade deal that will avoid additional 100% tariffs, with President Trump and Chinese President Xi expected to finalize the deal during their meeting this Thursday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open and closed at a new all-time high of 6,791.60. However, the RSI index failed to confirm the move with a new high, and up volume accounted for only 66% of total volume. This suggests the breakout may lack broad participation, and the new high remains suspect until an 80% up-volume day confirms stronger buying pressure. So far this morning, S&P 500 futures are up 0.81%, pointing to a strong start to the session and the… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a modestly lower opening amid another earnings-heavy day with some notable geopolitical headlines. A mega-cap consumer discretionary company posted earnings yesterday evening, missing EPS estimates as margins were lower due to tariff and supply chain pressures. On the trade front, the Trump administration sanctioned several of Russia’s largest oil companies, sending crude oil prices sharply higher. President Trump will no longer meet with Russian President Putin in Hungary. U.S. officials are still set to meet with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng over the weekend to discuss trade. The market hit a pocket of volatility yesterday after Reuters reported that the Trump administration is weighing sweeping software export curbs on China in retaliation for rare earth restrictions. President Trump is set to make an announcement at 3:00 ET, though the topic of which has not yet been disclosed. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested both the top of its trading range and the 20-day moving average before closing lower at 6,699.40. It appears that investors are waiting on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s CPI report. We believe the index could continue to trade within the range… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a flat opening after yesterday’s action, in which the major averages captured gains of 1.0% or wider across the board. While the information technology sector paced the early advance, all nine S&P 500 sectors that closed in positive territory also finished at least 1.0% higher. The market receives a sizable batch of earnings reports, including some notable blue-chip names. So far, this morning’s reports have come mainly in better than expected, helping drive futures off their early morning session lows. Macro developments are quiet this morning. President Trump’s more amicable commentary toward China added to yesterday’s positive sentiment. There are no consequential economic data releases slated for today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past the top of its recent trading range and closed higher at 6,735.13. The RSI index also moved out of its previous range in confirmation of the rally. Notably, the up volume represented 81% of the total trading volume, indicating strong and broad-based market participation. This performance suggests the potential beginning of a new uptrend, and the index could test its previous all-time high later this week. However, investors should remain cautious as any… Read More
