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Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after yesterday’s action saw the major averages post losses amid a sharp cryptocurrency sell-off in the first session of December. The energy sector was the only real winner sector-wise yesterday, though the technology sector shed a 1.3% early loss, which substantially improved the standing of the major averages. Mega-cap tech names are mostly higher this morning against a quiet backdrop of news flow. The market’s expectations for a December rate cut continue to hover just under 90% (87.2% to be exact), according to the CME FedWatch tool, and there are no economic data releases on the calendar this morning. While the market received only a slim batch of earnings reports after yesterday’s close, several tech stocks delivered notable moves in response. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed little changed at 6,812.63 and did not test the potential resistance at 6,869.91. The trading pattern was typical of a market that has rallied for five consecutive sessions, with investors taking a more measured approach. We feel the trading could be muted again today as the S&P 500 works to build a base and consolidate… Read More
Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning after stocks made a nice run during last week’s holiday-shortened action, which mitigated much of the losses incurred during the first few weeks of November. The major averages all gained more than 3.0% last week, enough for a mixed month. The S&P 500 closed slightly higher in November, as did the DJIA, while substantial losses across tech names earlier in the month prevented the Nasdaq Composite from extending its eight-month winning streak. Mega-cap tech is driving the premarket losses this morning, with all of the “magnificent seven” names currently down more than 0.5%. The end-of-month strength in equities is primarily attributed to a substantial increase in market expectations for a December rate cut from the Fed, which now stands at just under 90%. Bloomberg reports that President Trump said he knows who he will pick as the Fed Chair nominee, though he has not yet announced the candidate to the public. The market will receive the final November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET and the November ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed… Read More
Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly lower open after a solid start to the week that saw some confidence restored to tech, AI, and other momentum names yesterday. Strength across the mega-caps briefly pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite back across their 50-day moving averages, though they ended up closing just beneath the key technical level. The risk-on disposition of the market was once again boosted by another round of dovish Fed commentary, which saw the market’s implied probability of a December rate cut surpass 80%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s allies have essentially laid the groundwork for him to advocate for a December rate cut, despite the possibility of several dissents. Elsewhere, on the macro front, the market will receive a sizable batch of economic data this morning, which includes the September Producer Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), retail sales for September (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), and Consumer Confidence for November (Briefing.com consensus 93.3). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second straight day and closed sharply higher at 6,705.12. The RSI index also moved higher and… Read More
Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening after yesterday’s rally, which saw mega-cap names surge amid solid participation from the broader market. News of the Senate passing a procedural vote to fund the government and end the ongoing shutdown provided an early boost to sentiment. However, the day was largely devoid of any directional catalysts. This morning is also quiet on the headline front, with several of the mega-cap names that drove yesterday’s gains seeing some profit-taking in the premarket after a solid advance. Yesterday’s rally showed renewed confidence in the AI trade, with chipmakers among the top performers. Investors will look to a large semiconductor’s financial analyst day today, with Reuters reporting that the company is expected to outline its chip business plan. Elsewhere, earnings continue to slow as November progresses, and data releases remain slim amid the government shutdown. The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index registered at 98.2 (Briefing.com consensus 98.3) from a prior reading of 98.8. The Treasury market will be closed for the Veterans Day holiday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 advanced sharply, finishing the session higher at 6,832.43 and reclaiming its position above the 20-day… Read More
Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning after a somewhat tumultuous week characterized by weakness across the mega-caps. However, some late-week resilience kept the S&P 500 from closing under its 50-day moving average (6,669.00). Futures are boosted this morning by reports that the Senate has advanced a procedural measure by a vote of 60-40 to reopen and fund the government through January 30th. While Politico reports that the final passing of the bill will likely be delayed by several days, the market is enthused by a possible end to a shutdown that prevented the release of several key data reports and weighed on sentiment. Importantly, many of the mega-cap tech names that slipped last week are higher in the pre-market. Investors will not receive any economic data of note, as there are no releases scheduled for today. Meanwhile, a moderate slate of companies reported earnings before the open, though reports will become increasingly slimmer through the week as Q3 earnings are now mainly in the rearview. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply early in the session, but news of a potential breakthrough in the government shutdown brought in… Read More
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Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning in the wake of yesterday’s tech-led rally that sent the major averages to fresh record highs. A large semiconductor company was a key driver of the action, rising nearly 5.0% as investors reacted to a slate of announcements from the company’s GPU Technology Conference. The stock is up another 4.0% in the pre-market. Several meg-cap names will report their earnings this afternoon. Investors are currently digesting another sizable batch of earnings reports before the open. The market also eagerly anticipates a decision from the FOMC at 2:00 p.m. ET, widely expected to result in another 25-basis-point rate cut. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended October 25 increased 7.1%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, closing lower at 6,822.34 and holding just above the support level at 6,807.11. The RSI index also moved lower, confirming the market’s weakness. However, after the close, Amazon (AMZN) reported earnings that exceeded expectations, sending S&P 500 futures up by 0.77% ahead of the open. We expect the potential resistance at 6,902.34 to hold if tested today. We… Read More
Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning in the wake of yesterday’s tech-led rally that sent the major averages to fresh record highs. A large semiconductor company was a key driver of the action, rising nearly 5.0% as investors reacted to a slate of announcements from the company’s GPU Technology Conference. The stock is up another 4.0% in the pre-market. Several meg-cap names will report their earnings this afternoon. Investors are currently digesting another sizable batch of earnings reports before the open. The market also eagerly anticipates a decision from the FOMC at 2:00 p.m. ET, which is widely expected to result in another 25-basis-point rate cut. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended October 25 increased 7.1%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 slipped to 6,890.59 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from signaling additional interest rate cuts. Markets had been looking for clearer guidance suggesting at least two reductions before year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.10%, reflecting a cautious reassessment of policy expectations and adding pressure to an already overbought equity market. With sentiment vulnerable to profit-taking, short-term… Read More
Morning Brief
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning in the wake of yesterday’s tech-led rally that sent the major averages to fresh record highs. A large semiconductor company was a key driver of the action, rising nearly 5.0% as investors reacted to a slate of announcements from the company’s GPU Technology Conference. The stock is up another 4.0% in the pre-market. Several meg-cap names will report their earnings this afternoon. Investors are currently digesting another sizable batch of earnings reports before the open. The market also eagerly anticipates a decision from the FOMC at 2:00 p.m. ET, widely expected to result in another 25-basis-point rate cut. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended October 25 increased 7.1%, from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday all-time high of 6,911.30 before sellers stepped in, leaving the index to close slightly lower at 6,890.89, still marking a new closing high. The RSI continues to trend higher but has yet to confirm a new high, suggesting some loss of momentum. With the FOMC interest rate decision due later today, a mild pullback would not… Read More