Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The market is lacking directional drivers this morning following yesterday’s rally. Contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 trade slightly lower. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.70% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.31%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 103.77. Commodity futures are trading lower in front of the open at the stock market. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.8% to $77.21/bbl; natural gas futures are down 3.9% to $1.76/mmbtu; and copper futures are down 0.7% to $3.87/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 soared higher by 2.11% and set a new all-time high, closing at 5,087.03. However, the RSI index did not set a new high and has closed lower than the last two all-time highs that were achieved this year. Also, the up… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 60 points and are trading 1.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 348 points and are trading 2.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 135 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The stock market is back in rally mode this morning thanks to a major semiconductor company’s much better-than-expected earnings results, sending shares sharply higher ahead of the open. The report renewed the market’s fervor for AI-related trades and boosted other semiconductor and semiconductor equipment makers in sympathy, acting as added support for the market. In Japan, the Nikkei Stock Average exceeded its record closing high from 1989, benefiting from a surge in semiconductor and technology-related shares after NVIDIA’s results. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday in front of today’s economic releases. The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.34% and the 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.70%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 20-day moving average again and rallied back to close at 4,981.90 and above resistance at 4,975.29. So, we feel the recent uptrend has… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 67 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 129 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are lower this morning. Pre-open losses in some mega-cap names have contributed to the negative bias this morning. Earnings continue to roll in, receiving mixed responses from investors. A large investment banking firm believes the S&P 500 will reach 5,200 by the end of the year, citing optimistic earnings expectations as the reason for increasing their forecast, according to Bloomberg. Separately, the People’s Bank of China lowered its five-year loan prime rate to 3.95% from 4.20% against expectations for a smaller decrease, while the one-year rate remained at 3.45%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,005.57, and we are hopeful a small base can form at these levels this week. The RSI index is now negatively divergent, signaling the possibility of selling today and a test of potential support at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 85 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Futures tied to the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 are higher, while contracts linked to the Dow are slightly lower. Market participants are digesting another batch of earnings news that received mixed reactions. Treasury yields are moving higher in front of the January Producer Price Indexes at 8:30 ET. The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.28% and the 2-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.63%. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) said in a speech that he is “not yet comfortable that inflation is inexorably declining to our 2 percent objective.” (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second day, closing higher at 5,029.73, and is now set to test the old high potentially. The up volume came in at 77%, which is very close to a follow-through day after yesterday’s 81% up day. However,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 110 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 105 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The market looks ready to reclaim some lost ground following yesterday’s everything retreat. Pre-open gains in mega cap stocks have provided a boost to the broader market. Treasury yields are also pulling back somewhat this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.62% after jumping 20 basis points yesterday. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.30% after rising 14 basis points yesterday. Inflation data from the UK was cooler than expected. CPI dropped 0.6% month-over-month versus an expected 0.3% decline. The year-over-year number remained steady from last month at 4.0% versus expectations for a slight increase to 4.1%. The eurozone reported much better than expected industrial production in December, jumping 2.6% month-over-month versus expectations for a 0.2% decline. Today’s US economic data is limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which dropped 2.3% versus a 3.7% increase last week, and the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are unchanged and are trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down four points and are trading roughly in line with fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is heading for a flat open after another record closing high for the S&P 500 on Friday. The market is lacking direction drivers this morning, but this week’s calendar features some potentially market-moving events, including the January Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.46% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.15%. Oil prices are sliding after gaining more than 6.0% last week. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $76.07/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at, once again, another new high at 5,026.61 on Friday. The volume was below average, with only 2,289,548,800 shares traded, and only 52% of that was up volume. However, the RSI index continues to move higher in support of the rally, closing at 73.10. So, there is a mixed… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down nine points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open after another record-high close for the S&P 500 had the index just a whisker shy of the 5,000 level. Modest pre-open losses in some mega-cap stocks have limited moves for the broader market. The 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.14%, and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.44% ahead of today’s $25 billion 30-yr bond auction. This follows a $42 billion 10-yr note auction and a $54 billion 3-yr note auction earlier this week, both of which were met with strong demand. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei closed near its record high in early 1990 after the Bank of Japan deputy governor said that it is hard to imagine a path of continuous rate hikes despite ongoing speculation about the BOJ’s exit from negative rate policy. China’s CPI was down 0.8% yr/yr in January, deflating at its fastest… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up eight points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down one point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Equity futures indicate a flattish open without a strong directional driver this morning. Market participants are digesting another mixed batch of earnings. Treasury yields are slightly higher in front of today’s $42 billion 10-yr note auction. The results will be released at 1:00 ET. This follows yesterday’s $54 billion 3-yr note auction that was met with strong demand. The 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.12%, and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.42%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range, closing higher at 4,954.23, and has now formed a three-day base. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are higher by .30%, which would be a new high at the open. Better-than-expected corporate earnings were cited as the reason for the increase. A close above the potential resistance at 4,975.25… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down two points and are trading roughly in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up two points and are trading roughly in line with fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a flattish, yet slightly lower, open. Another slate of earnings news since yesterday’s close has received mixed responses from investors, contributing to the muted activity in the broader market. Stocks have been highly reactive to activity in Treasuries of late and yields are little changed this morning from yesterday’s settlement levels, which has also contributed to the flattish feeling of the broader market. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.45%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.15%. Equities in China and Hong Kong rallied sharply overnight after a government-backed investment fund revealed it would expand its support in the market by buying stock index funds. Also, Chinese President Xi plans to discuss the stock market declines with regulators today, according to Bloomberg. Separately, Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down one point and are trading roughly in line with fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 68 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open following Friday’s record-high close for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Q4 earnings reporting period continues with a couple of Dow components receiving mixed reactions to their reports this morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his view from last week’s post-FOMC decision press conference over the weekend on 60 Minutes, saying that the Fed needs to see more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to its 2% target before lowering rates. Geopolitical worries are part of the narrative this morning after the White House issued a statement noting that the US military response to last week’s killing of three American soldiers will continue, including additional strikes against Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Houthis promised “escalation” after the latest strikes, according to The Washington Post. The price action in Treasuries and WTI crude oil futures ($72.15/bbl, -0.13, -0.2%) does not… Read More
