Headline News: Wall Street is set for a higher open as the rapid roll-out of vaccines and new stimulus brought in hopes of an economic rebound. The U.S. Senate is expected to take up President Biden’s relief package today, and they aim to sign it into law by March 14. However, the ADP National Employment Report came in lower than expected for February, suggesting a struggling labor market. Private payrolls only increased by 117,000 jobs, and January’s report was revised up to 195,000. Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 3870.29, which was below a support level at 3870.29. The selloff was about half the previous days’ range and is very typical after a wide-ranging day. The volume came in much lower with 2,281,166,080 shares traded and RSI remained above the 50 level, closing at 51.31. If support at 3870.29 is broken again at the open, the index could possibly test 3830.41 quickly, so an up day with high volume is critical today. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term cautious. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after the S&P 500 was higher by 2.4% on Monday. Investors will be watching as the U.S. Senate will begin debates on President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. However, concerns remain over a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield signaling a possible spike in inflation and fears over high valuations in equity markets. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 3870.90 to close higher at 3901.82. The trading came with advancing issues accounting for 80% of the volume signaling intense buying pressure. The RSI index moved past the middle line in support of the rally closing at 55.34. We feel the index needs another 80% upside volume day and close above potential resistance at 3928.65 for the recent selloff to potentially be over. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term cautious. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are set to open higher as bond markets calmed, a new stimulus package was passed, and positive vaccine updates. The U.S. 10-year treasury moved from 1.614% down to 1.446%, easing the threat of a higher interest rate environment. President Biden was able to get his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package passed early Saturday, and the bill will now move to the Senate. Johns & Johnson (JNJ) began shipping its single-dose vaccine after becoming the third authorized COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. Markets: The S&P 500 traded below the 50-day moving average level of 3808.40, rallied up to resistance at 3870.90 and closed lower on the day at 3811.15. The trading came on massive volume at 3,120,232,704 while RSI moved lower, closing at 43.50, well below the critical 50 level. The last three trading days have been wide-ranging with above-average volume, and it is clear buyers and sellers are battling for control of the S&P 500. The index is in need of a catalyst to move it in either direction before these choppy days end. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term cautious. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are lower to start the day but are off the lows after a key inflation report was released. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) showed a slow inflation rate in January. The lower increase was .03% for January and 1.5% year over year. The news sent the 10-year yields lower to 1.47% after they have risen to 1.6%. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to struggle with passing President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package. The bill was blocked when it was determined the $15 minimum wage hike could not be included in the current bill. Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another wide-ranging day now sites just below potential support at 3830.41. The index moved through two support levels during the day to close lower at 3829.34. The next possible support level is the critical 50-day moving average at 3805.12. Volume was again huge with 2.918,171,904 shares traded, and RSI moved below the middle line to close at 45.76. So, a close below the 50-day could potentially bring in a new round of selling. A close above 3830.41 and, more important, 3870.90 would be good sign sellers have lost control. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures were higher as investors hope the late-day rally on Tuesday will carry through to today’s trading. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Powell testified that inflation was “soft” and that the U.S. economy was “a long way from our employment and inflation goals.” Also, the Food and Drug Administration’s staff endorsed Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) single-shot vaccine for emergency use. The U.S. will now have three vaccine’s and hopes are higher for a faster rollout for the nation. Markets: The S&P 500 had a wide trading range Tuesday that saw a test and break of support at 3830.41 and a test of resistance at 3892.59. The index closed higher on the day at 3881.37 with above-average volume of 2,933,668,416. RSI did move slightly higher and closed at 54.83 and did not provide confirmation of the up move. So, today’s trading could be critical if any new potential uptrend will form soon. If possible resistance at 3892.59 is breached on high volume, we feel the index’s recent selling could be done. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term cautious. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are lower as investors are selling technology stocks that currently have a high valuation. The selling is a reaction to an increase in interest rates and an increase in the pace of inflation. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before Congress, and he is expected to announce the Fed will tolerate the new rate of inflation. Later today, the U.S. consumer confidence report will come out and will also provide guidance on the U.S. economy. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 3876.50 on Monday, which was well below support at 3892.59. The trading increased as 2,737,207,808 shares were traded, and RSI also confirmed the down move, closing at 54.03. The significant increase in volume possible shows the sellers now have control. We have now moved to a short-term cautious stance due to the break of the support line. Potential support could now come in at 3870.90 and then at the 3830.41 level. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term cautious. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are lower on fears of rising Treasury yields leading to increased inflation and fears of high equity valuations. The Yield on the 10-year Treasury note has passed the 1.30% level considered by many to be a key level for the Federal Reserve. However, Chairman Powell is expected to reiterate a commitment to an easy monetary policy in his semi-annual testimony before Congress later this week. Also, fears of a slow vaccine rollout continue to be a significant concern for investors. Markets: The S&P 500 tested resistance at 3931.50 only to close lower at 3906.71 on Friday. The index is now back in the middle of the current trading range and is still forming a base. Volume was much higher, with 2,301,386,496 shares traded. The 3931.50 level has now been tested five times, and the sellers could be drying up soon at that level. If so, we continue to believe a potential new uptrend will begin. The pick-up in volume could also be a sign that the sellers could be done, but we will have to wait and see if the index can breakout with an above-average volume day. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher despite new fears of a slowing economy and further pullbacks in the S&P 500. Concerns over high stock valuations and a slow vaccine rollout have investors cautious. Currently, stocks are trading at 22 times 12-month forward earnings, which is the most expensive since the late 1990s during the dot-com bubble. Meanwhile, the IHS Markits’ flash reading on Manufacturing is reported later today and is expected to show lower U.S. factory activity. Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to 3885.03 and below support at 3892.59 but rallied to close at 3913.97. The index is now back in the middle of the recent trading range and the base that started on 2/9/2021. Volume was good with 2,002,668,544 shares traded, but the RSI index moved lower to close at 61.77. The reversal was impressive because support was broken for a second time, but the fact that buyers poured back in is a good sign that a possible new uptrend could start. We feel the buying could carry over into today and possibly help push the index back to the potential resistance at 3931.50. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures were flat as investors reacted to the January retail sales report and release of the latest FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep monetary policy loose and keep interest rates low until inflation rises to 2%. The Commerce Department reported that January sales surged by a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.3%. Also, consumers increased savings, which was reported at $2.38 trillion in December. The U.S. economy is now forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2021. Markets: The S&P 500 moved to a new all-time trading high of 3950.43 but sold off almost immediately to close lower at 3932.59. There was a pick in volume with 2,283,136,000 shares traded. The rejection of a new closing high with higher volume shows the index may be moving too far too fast, and more basing action might be needed to start a new uptrend. The RSI index did not move higher along with the S&P 500 and provided more proof of an index that is not ready to move higher just yet. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner,… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are lower as investors appear to be taking profits after the recent rally in the S&P 500. One catalyst for the rally has been corporate earnings, with 82% of 355 S&P firms topping estimates for the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, recent Reuters polls showed the U.S. economy is expected to reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year. This comes after data showed a large drop in the number of new virus cases and hospitalizations in the United States. Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another broad-ranging day and again tested and held support at 3892.59. The volume was extremely light, with only 1,985,404,288 shares traded. The index is now forming a textbook base that will potentially lead to another new closing high soon. The RSI index is also moving sideways and forming a base confirming the trading action on the S&P 500. Potential support will remain at 3892.59, and possible resistance could come in at 3931.50. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial… Read More
