Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher to start the day after the release of the June jobs report this morning. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls increased 850,000, and the unemployment rate increased to 5.9%. Also, the current jobless rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work.” There are now 9.3 million job openings which is a record number. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% after increasing by 0.4% in May. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high at 4319.94 on Thursday and is set to open higher again this morning. The index moved out of the two-day base and trading channel, but volume was tame, coming in at 1,798,347,776. The lack of volume should be a concern, but that has not mattered in this new uptrend. Also, RSI moved up to 67.93, just under the overbought level. So, the index can still potentially move higher from these levels. Potential resistance could come in at 4320.06, and possible support could come in at 4302.03. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are set to open near record highs again today as investors react to a new economic report released this morning. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 51,000 to a seasonally adjusted 364,000 as reported by the Labor Department. Claims have decreased by 6.14 million in April of 2020 but are still above the 200,000-250,000 range considered a healthy labor market. Tomorrow the all-important jobs report will be reported and could be a potential market mover after the release. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at yet another new all-time high at 4297.50 on Wednesday. The index is potentially starting the base we have been looking for and in a trading channel. So, potential resistance could now come in at 4302.03, and possible support could come in at 4287.04. RSI closed at 64.73 and is not yet overbought, which shows that the index could still likely move higher today. Our hope is another sideways day to consolidate the recent gains. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a flat open as the markets are set to close out a positive first six months and a positive second quarter of the year. Meanwhile, ADP reported that private payrolls increased at a faster pace than predicted. There was an increase of 692,000 that was well above the 550,000 estimates but below the 886,000 report for May. The most significant growth came in the leisure and hospitality sector, with an increase of 332,000. In addition, education and health services increased by 123,000, transportation and utilities rose by 62,000, and professional, and business services increased b7 53,000. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 4291.80 and has closed higher five out of the last seven days. The term “melt up” is now being thrown around to describe the recent uptrend along with ” it can’t keep going higher.” Volume has trended lower the last two days, so we feel some caution is warranted. However, we think any pullback would be a potential buying opportunity because it is clear there is an uptrend in place. Possible support will remain at 4721.28, and we see that level being tested soon. We are… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a flat open as investors wait for the release of more vital economic reports. Today at 10 a.m., the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will be released, and economists expect a rise to 119 for the month of May. Investors are also closely monitoring the increase in new COVID-19 cases across Asia. Meanwhile, the possibility of higher interest rates due to a rise in inflation is also a concern. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to another new all-time closing high of 4290.61 on Monday. The trading came with a pick-up in volume with 1,986,163,712 shares traded, and RSI also continued to march higher, closing at 63.71. The index has now gained 3% since the 6/18/21 low of 4,204.78. We still believe that a new base is needed; however, the index is not yet overbought and could potentially move higher. Potential resistance could now come in at 4292.14, and possible support remains at 4721.28. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are flat after posting the best weekly performance in five months last week. The agreement on President Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending deal has investors encouraged, and investors also appear to be less concerned about possible interest rate hikes in the future. Meanwhile, the next critical economic data report will be the June jobs report released this Friday. Economists are expecting that nonfarm payrolls will increase by 683,000, well above the 559,000 increase in May. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high at 4280.70 on Friday. The index has now been higher four out of the last five days, and some profit-taking may potentially come in today. Volume came in at 2,745,185,792, but the increase was due in part to a reconstruction process in the index. So, we do not know the real extent of the buying on Friday. Our hope is that a small base is formed at these levels to set up another potential move higher. If selling should come in today, we possible support could now come in at 4721.28 and then 4257.16. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher after a vital inflation gauge was reported in line with expectations. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.4% as expected in May, the fastest rate of increase since April of 1992. The report also showed that consumer spending was flat vs. the estimate of a 0.4% increase, and personal income declined 2.4% less than the estimate of 2.7%. However, those reports had been inflated primarily by government stimulus checks. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 4266.49 on Thursday. The index has now rallied 2.5% off the 6/18/2021 low of 4164.40 after also trading below the 50-day moving average. Potential support could now come in at 4257.16 and possibly at 4238.04. The impressive rally has us back to a short-term bullish stance. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a slightly higher open after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would not quickly raise interest rates. He also stated that he encouraged a “broad and inclusive” recovery for the job market. Later today, the IHS Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI for June and New Home Sales for May will be released. The data could give investors guidance on the health and growth rate of the U.S. economy. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied again on Tuesday and briefly tested the all-time high before closing at 4246.44. However, the rally did come with lower volume again, with only 1,784,048,256 shares traded. In addition, the index has moved off the 6/18/2021 low in a v shape pattern which is typically short-lived. So, a new base at these levels will once again have the index in position to achieve a potential new high. We also expect selling at the next resistance level at 4257.16 to be strong and possibly hold today. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are slightly higher ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress today. In his prepared remarks released on Monday afternoon, Powell said inflation has “increased notably in recent months, but he felt the recent rise is likely to fade. The Chairman is also expected to reiterate that inflation is transitory and will drop back as these transitory supply effects abate. As a result, he feels the inflation rate will fall back to 2% over the long term. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied strongly on Monday, moving past the 50-day moving average and resistance at 4197.59. The volume was lower with only 2,036,837,888 shares traded, but RSI moved back above the middle line to close at 54.31. The index is now just below a potential resistance level at 4238.04, and we feel that it should hold today while the index consolidates the gains. However, Fed Chari Jerome Powell is testifying before Congress today, and his testimony has the potential to move the index in either direction quickly. His prepared statements appear, at this time, to be potentially bullish for today’s trading. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N.… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are sharply higher to start the week as investors appear to buy after last week’s selloff. Also, inflation expectations seem to be muted, and investors are beginning to respect the Fed’s stance that inflation is transitory. This morning, St. Louis Fed President Jeremy Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will be giving speeches. Later in the day, New York President John Williams will also be speaking, and there could be new guidance on future Fed monetary policy. Markets: The S&P 500 moved below support at 4197.59 and then below the 50-day moving average to close at 4166.45 on Friday. The trading came with massive volume with 3,608,016,384 shares traded, and RSI dove below the mid-line closing at 43.37. The break of the 50-day moving average on the increase in volume has moved us to a short-term bearish stance. The next potential support level could now be at 4118.38. A close back above the 50-day moving average at 4181.59 would be constructive, but we don’t see that happening today. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner,… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are sharply lower this morning as investors appear to be fearful of rising inflation. However, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little “hawkish,” and he said he sees the first interest rate increase in 2022. He also said, “We’re expecting a good year, a good reopening. But this is a bigger year than we were expecting, more inflation than we were expecting.” The comments had the 2-year treasury yield higher and the 10-year yield lower. The rise in the 2-year reflects higher expectations of the Fed raising rates, and the lower 10-year yield reflects less optimism for future economic growth. Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 4197.59 and rallied to close higher at 4221.86. There was, finally, a substantial pick-up in volume with 2.580,717,824 shares traded. This morning, the S&P 500 futures are trading at 4180.25 as of 8:55 am. That would be an open below current support and right at the 50-day moving average at 4180.20. So, if buyers do not come in today, it is possible a new downtrend would be in place, changing the current dynamic of the… Read More
