Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open as the S&P 500 is braced for its worst monthly performance since March of 2020. Later this week, traders will get fourth-quarter earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (FB), and Amazon (AMZN), all of which could potentially be market movers. Also, on Friday, the December nonfarm payroll report will be released, and the White House has already warned the omicron surge could hurt that monthly number. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied off a low of 4292.46 to close higher at 4432.85 on Friday. The index is now just under the 200-day moving average at 4431.95, and RSI moved out of the oversold zone closing higher at 38.07. However, volume came in at only 2,914,800,384 shares traded well below the recent daily average. The S&P 500 is now in a position to potentially rally past and close above the 200-day moving average, which would be a bullish signal and possibly bring in new buyers today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 37 points, or 0.9%, below fair value as the downside volatility persists in front of key inflation data. Apple (AAPL 163.09, +3.87, +2.4%) is providing offsetting support for the futures market following its better-than-expected earnings report. Specifically, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation in the PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) will be included in the Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) and Spending (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) report for December at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Treasury market is sniffing a hot report, which should support the case for the Fed to be more assertive in tightening policy to rein in inflation. The 2-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.22%, and the 10-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.84%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 97.37. WTI crude is up 0.7% to $87.18/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio and Technology) Markets: The S&P 500 briefly tested the 200-day moving average early only to sell off late and close lower at 4287.11. The index has now formed a trading range of 4433.74-4287.11, while the RSI moved further into the oversold zone at 24.32. The last three trading days have… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to rise at the open after the fourth-quarter GDP was reported higher than expected. Gross domestic product increased at a 6.9% annualized pace versus expectations of an increase of 5.6%. Private inventory assessments, strong consumer activity, exports, and business spending grew higher than the previous quarter. Also, consumer activity, which accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, rose 3.3%, and gross private domestic investment rose an impressive 32%. Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another wide-ranging day and broke through the 200-day moving,4432.73, average briefly before closing at 4349.93. RSI moved further into the oversold zone closing at 25.49, increasing the chances of a potential rally attempt again today. The failure to hold above the 200-day moving average is disappointing, but the index has produced higher lows the last two trading days, and we feel there will be another higher low at the end of trading today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk,… Read More
Headline News: U.S. equity markets are set to open sharply higher after Microsoft (MSFT) beat Q4 expectations estimates on the top and bottom lines. The stock was trading higher by 5%, and Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Netflix (NFLX) were all also higher on the news. Later today, the Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day policy meeting and will make an announcement this afternoon. The central bank is not expected to raise rates but might give information on when and how many rate hikes might happen this year. Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another wide range and closed lower at 4356.45 on 2,062,151,424 in volume. RSI remained in the oversold zone, so there is a chance we could see a rally today. Potential resistance remains at the 200-day moving average at 4431.49, and we feel that level will be breached today. If so, there could be sustained buying the rest of the week testing potential resistance at 4531.10. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial… Read More
Headline News: The equity index futures market is facing renewed selling pressure, even though most companies that reported earnings since yesterday’s close beat expectations. The S&P 500 futures trade 50 points, or 1.1%, below fair value after completing a huge comeback yesterday.Dow components Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 160.00, -2.97, -1.8%), IBM (IBM 131.00, +2.18, +1.7%), American Express (AXP 160.00, +1.07, +0.7%), Verizon (VZ 53.25, +0.29, +0.6%), and 3M (MMM 176.00, +3.20, +1.9%) are among those companies with encouraging earnings results, although J&J did miss revenue estimates.Note, IBM’s software segment guidance was a bit underwhelming, which could be weighing on Microsoft (MSFT 292.08, -4.29, -1.5%) ahead of its earnings report after today’s close. Staying in the technology space, NVIDIA (NVDA 224.10, -9.62, -4.1%) is reportedly getting ready to end plans for its $40 billion acquisition of Arm Holdings due to regulatory pressure. Separately, investors’ expectations for a more hawkish Fed (to rein in inflation pressures) are playing out in the Treasury market as the FOMC prepares for its two-day policy meeting today. U.S. Treasury yields across the curve are trading higher on renewed selling interest. The 2-yr yield is up four basis points to 1.01%, and the 10-yr yield is up… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street was set to continue the selling as the S&P 500 futures were down 1.2% in pre-market trading. Traders appear to be concerned about fourth-quarter earnings reports and the recent rise in interest rates. This week Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL) will report earnings. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will hold its two-day meeting that wraps on Wednesday, and investors will be watching for clues on when and how much interest rates may be raised. Markets: The S&P 500 moved through the 200-day moving average at 4429.14 and closed lower at 4397.94 on Friday. The trading came with 3,199,872,000 in volume, and RSI is now oversold. The break of the 200-day moving average confirmed traders are now willing to sell at any price and shows significant uncertainty about current events in the U.S. and globally. Potential new support could now come in at 4367.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading… Read More
Headline News: The futures market remains under pressure after Netflix (NFLX 408.00, -100.25, -19.7%) forecasted slower subscriber growth for the first quarter, keeping a lid on other growth stocks despite a decline in interest rates. The S&P 500 futures trade 14 points, or 0.3%, below fair value, while the Nasdaq 100 futures trade 0.8% below fair value. The 20% decline in NFLX is also factoring in a miss on Q4 global paid net additions and downside Q1 revenue guidance. The Netflix story dovetails with the Peloton (PTON 25.65, +1.43, +5.9%) story yesterday insofar that investors have grown wary about what could still happen to growth stocks that don’t live up to expectations, even though they’ve already been hit hard. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4482.73 after moving through three support levels. The index moved past the December low set on 12/3/2021 of 4495.12 and has pulled back over 7% from the high on 1/4/2022 at 4818.62. RSI is close to moving into the oversold level, and the market internals are now in oversold territory. We feel the index will now potentially test the 200-day moving average at 4427.63 before any… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to open higher after strong fourth-quarter earnings from major U.S. companies. Bank of America (BAC) beat estimates for profits, and Morgan Stanley (MS) also had higher profits than analysts’ estimates. Procter & Gamble (PG) and United Health (UNH) were also higher on better than expected earnings reports. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 1.84% in early trading and is again putting pressure on high valuation technology stocks. Markets: The S&P 500 sold off heavy on Tuesday, closing at 4577.11 and under the old higher low set on 1/10/2022 at 4582.24. So, we feel there is more work to do on the downside, and new potential support could now come in at 4551.66 and then 4531.10. However, to put the selling in perspective, we are nearing levels; the index started on December 2021, and a retracement of that move, while challenging to watch, is not yet near a full-on bear market call just yet. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged,… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after mixed Q4 reports from several major banks and a weak retail sales report. JPMorgan (JPM) beat expectations but had weak trading profits and was down 3%. Wells Fargo (WFC) gained 1.5% after reporting a rise in profits. However, the Commerce Department reported U.S. retail sales dropped 1.9% in December. A shortage of goods and a rapid rise in COVID-19 infections was cited as a problem for the economy. Markets: The S&P tested resistance at 4743.83 and then sold off to end the day lower at 4659.03. The trading took the index below the important 50-day moving average, and pre-market trading shows an open below potential support at 4646.61. If so, the next possible support level would come in at 4582.24, which was the low on 1/10/2022 and a higher low aft the lows on 12/20/2022 and 12/3/2022. We will continue to be cautious and wait for possible better buying opportunities. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a flat open despite good earnings from two economically sensitive companies. Delta (DA) was higher by 1.7% after posting higher profit and revenue for Q4 and reaffirmed full-year guidance. After reporting better-than-expecting earnings, KB Home (KBH) was higher by 8%. According to Refinitive, analysts are expecting Q4 earnings to be higher by 22%, but guidance from individual companies could be a key for future market action. Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4726.35 after testing and failing at the 4743.83 level. RSI did finish higher, closing at 53.06 in support of the break-out attempt. We believe the index needs to at least pause at this level and consolidate the recent gains. Also, the advance/decline line and the net new high indexes need to catch up with the index. Potential support remains at the 50-day moving average at 4680.40, and possible resistance remains at 4743.83. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the… Read More
