Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value as the market awaits the results of cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine. WTI crude futures briefly topped $116 per barrel overnight as Russian forces reportedly captured the southern city of Kherson, but prices have since retraced to $113.14 per barrel (+$2.48, +2.2%). Energy stocks are benefiting from the elevated oil prices in pre-market action. Software stocks Snowflake (SNOW 210.35, -54.34, -20.5%), Veeva Systems (VEEV 206.85, -23.77, -10.3%), and Okta (OKTA 170.03, -12.67, -6.9%), on the other hand, are showing weakness after providing underwhelming-to-disappointing guidance. Their weakness could be restraining interest in other growth stocks. Elsewhere, the Treasury market is behaving relatively quiet following three straight days of huge moves. The 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 1.50%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 97.57. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded above resistance at 4385.51 and closed higher at 4389.54. Technically the trading was a breakout, but we would like to see a follow through on higher volume to be sure the buyers are back in charge. The RSI… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 28 points, or 0.7%, above fair value in a buy-the-dip trade, even as oil prices top $110 per barrel this morning. WTI crude futures are currently up 6.3%, or $6.54, to $109.96/bbl, spurred by supply-constraint expectations brought on by the longer-than-expected Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion has entered its seventh day. President Biden, in his State of the Union Address last night, said the U.S. is ready to release more oil into the market, if necessary, unified with its allies. Recall, the U.S. and 30 other countries agreed yesterday to release 60 million barrels of oil, or 4% of their total emergency stockpiles. The market will soon hear a production decision from OPEC+, which is expected to stick to its schedule of increasing output by 400,000 barrels per day. Later, Fed Chair Powell will appear before Congress for his semiannual monetary policy testimony, starting today at 10:00 a.m. ET and continuing tomorrow morning. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 4287.11 and had a late day rally off that level to close lower at4306.26. The hold of support was encouraging, and we… Read More
Headline News: U.S.stock futures are set to open lower after oil prices increased overnight due to Russia and Ukraine’s continued tension. West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged by 5% and above $101 per barrel. That was the highest price per barrel in over seven years. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year note yield moved lower to 1.73% as a sign that investors are seeking safer investments. Markets: The S&P 500 traded lower below support at 4341.51 only to rally late in the day to close higher at 4373.94. The trading action was encouraging because buyers once again stepped to support the index. We feel today could be more to the same trading and don’t expect a big move in either direction. Possible resistance will remain at 4462.05, and potential support could come in at 4341.51 and 4287.11. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 39 points and trade 0.9% below fair value following some negative-sounding developments on the Russia-Ukraine situation. The benchmark index enters the session up 6.6% from last Thursday’s low. Briefly, President Putin put Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert in response to further involvement/sanctions from the West. Several countries, including the U.S., announced they would block selected Russian banks from using the SWIFT messaging system, although banks involved in energy will not be removed. Russia closed its stock market today, and its central bank increased rates to 20% from 9.5% to help protect its beleaguered ruble currency. Ukraine President Zelensky has expressed skepticism regarding the outcome of planned talks with Russia today. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P rallied past resistance at 4341.51 and closed higher at 4384.65 to end last week. Potential resistance is now at the 200-day moving average at4660.74, but we don’t feel that level will be tested today. Traders could look to take some quick profits after buying near the low of 4114.65 on 2/24/2022. If so, potential support could come in at 4341.51, 4287.11, and then 4222.62. However, RSI is still showing a… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open after erasing losses earlier this morning. Investors continue to monitor the risks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, PCE, rose at the fastest rate in 38 years. The year-over-year number increased by 5.2%, just above expectations of 5.1%. Including food and energy, the PCE was higher by 6.1%, the most significant gain since February of 1982. Also, consumer spending increased more than forecast at 2.1%, and personal income was flat for the month. Markets: The S&P staged an impressive 4.4% rally from low to high on Thursday, closing 1.5% higher at4228.70. The index also closed above resistance 4287.11, which will now become potential support. There is now a positive divergence in the RSI index as it did not make a new low along with the S&P 500. That is a sign the selling power is waning after four days in a row of lower closes. We feel there could be more buying today as more investors look to buy the dip, and the 4341.51 level could possibly be resistance. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III… Read More
Headline News: U.S. equity index futures are down more than 2.0% after Russia attacked Ukraine with explosions reported in multiple cities. The S&P 500 futures are down 101 points and trade 2.4% below fair value, while the Nasdaq 100 futures trade 3.2% below fair value. Stocks in Asia closed sharply lower while stocks in Europe are selling off with U.S. futures — Russia’s MOEX index is down 34%, versus a 3.8% decline in the Europe Stoxx 600. Cryptocurrencies are also weak, with bitcoin down 9% to approximately $35,000. Money is flowing into safe-haven assets like the 10-yr Treasury note, which is yielding 11 basis points lower at 1.87%, as well as commodities. WTI crude futures are up 7.4% to $98.94/bbl. The 2-yr yield is down 12 basis points to 1.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 1.0% to 97.11. Russian President Putin issued a dire warning to anyone who tries to interfere with Russia’s plans, while President Biden said the U.S. and allies would impose severe sanctions on Russia. Chinese state media blamed the U.S. and rejected the term “invasion,” according to CNBC. Things are looking bleak, and investors are bracing for further downside, evidenced by the 19.5% spike in… Read More
Headline News: Futures are higher this morning by 1.20% on the NASDAQ and 0.80% on the S&P as investors assessed limited initial Western sanctions against Russia, according to Bloomberg. Instead of a sweeping package that crippled top Russian banks, cut its financial transactions off from the global economy, or personally singled out Putin, the U.S. and its allies settled on a modest “first tranche” of penalties, though officials warned they could be scaled up. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy ) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 4287.11 but rallied late to closer at 4304.76. The breach of support is not a good sign and brings the low on 1/24/2022 at 4222.62 into play as potential support. However, the index has now traded lower for three days in a row, and we believe a relief rally could take place today. If so, potential resistance could come in at 4364.84. So far this morning, the index is indicated to open higher at 4328.50. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine heat up after President Putin ordered troops into two breakaway regions. Oil prices are up sharply, with West Texas Intermediate futures rising to $95.19 per barrel. Meanwhile, Home Depot (HD) reported quarterly profits of $3.21 as share beating estimates and said it sees earnings and revenue growth this year. Also, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 1.94% after briefly trading above 2% last week. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 4348.87, well below the support level at 4364.84 on Friday. The index is now in a position to, potentially, test old support at 4287.11, which we feel could happen early in the trading today. Also, we are hopeful that the support level can hold like it has three other times. So far, this morning, the futures are lower by nine points, pointing to an open for the S&P 500 at 433.25. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 27 points, or 0.6%, above fair value as the latest geopolitical headlines offer some reprieve for the market. The benchmark index enters the session down 0.9% for the week after a steep decline yesterday. Investors are cautiously optimistic on the Russia-Ukraine situation after Secretary of State Blinken agreed to meet with Russia’s foreign minister next week if there’s no invasion, according to The New York Times. Russia also rebuffed claims that it was planning to invade. The reaction outside the futures market has been muted. The 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.97%, and the 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 1.49%. Gold futures have edged lower from the $1900 level ($1893.80, -8.20, -0.4%). The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 95.81. WTI crude futures, however, are now trading below $90 per barrel ($89.49, -2.26, -2.5%) amid the potential for a nuclear agreement with Iran. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off and closed lower at 4380.26, just above old support at 4364.84. This level is crucial since it represents a higher low that needs to hold today. If not, the low of 4287.44… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a flat open despite a surge in the January retail sales report. The Census Bureau reported a 3.8% increase in sales VS an expectation of a rise of only 2.1%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales jumped by 4.8%. Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia claimed more troops were withdrawing, but NATO said the troop build-up was continuing on Wednesday. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past the 200-day moving average at 4453.16 and closed higher at 4471.07. Up volume was 80% of the up/down, and breadth was also positive, with advancers at 77% of Adv/Dec issues. Also, the low of 4364.84 set yesterday became a higher low and is another sign of potential recovery for the index. Today, a test of possible resistance would confirm the current bullish stance. However, we feel another close above the 200-day at 4454.56 would be constructive. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial… Read More
