Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 22 points, or 0.5%, above fair value to start the week as oil prices continue to cool off from last week’s highs. WTI crude futures are currently down 4.9%, or $5.31, to $103.95/bbl. The lower oil prices have been driven by news that Russia and Ukraine are holding another round of ceasefire talks today, that China re-imposed Covid lockdowns and travel restrictions in certain cities, and that India might buy discounted oil from Russia. Regarding Russia-Ukraine, Ukraine President Zelensky said he’s seen a positive shift in talks with Russia (echoing Mr. Putin’s perspective) on Saturday, only for Russia to continue its deadly offensive the following day and ask China for military equipment. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on the “Face the Nation” show, aired on CBS News, that Russia appears to be planning a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine. Mr. Sullivan reiterated the president’s stance that Moscow will face a “severe price” if that happens. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 4222.62 and closed lower at 4204.31. We feel most of the selling was to protect cash… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 61 points, or 1.4%, above fair value after reports indicated that Russian President Putin claims that discussions with Ukraine have taken a positive turn. Details have been scant, so the positive-sounding headline first reported by IFX is what the market is basing its optimism on. On a related note, President Biden is scheduled to speak at 10:15 a.m. ET to announce actions that continue to hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine. Crude futures are higher ($106.87, +0.85, +0.9%) but are off overnight highs, which were driven by news that the U.S. and Iran could not revive a nuclear deal due to Russian qualms and key issues remaining unsolved. The 10-yr yield is unchanged at 2.01% after trading at 1.97% overnight. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.73% after touching 1.69% overnight. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 98.41 (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 briefly broke support at 4222.62 but rallied late to close higher at 4259.52. So far this morning, the index is set to open higher, potentially at 4287.00, which is right at the next possible level of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 45 points, or 1.1%, below fair value after a third round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine ended with no real progress. Oil prices are rebounding modestly while Treasuries trade little changed in front of key consumer inflation data. After the talks, Russia confirmed a ban on exports of certain technology, auto, and agricultural products, among other items, until the end of 2022, in retaliation for Western sanctions on Moscow, according to Reuters. On a related note, the UK expanded sanctions against Russian oligarchs on Thursday. Staying in Europe, the ECB recently left its key interest rates unchanged, as expected. The central bank said it’s on pace to conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter of this year, and it extended the Eurosystem repo facility for central banks (EUREP) until Jan. 2023 because of the Russia-Ukraine situation. WTI crude futures, which dropped 12% yesterday, are back up 4.2%, or $4.55, to $113.21/bbl. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.68%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.95%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 98.18 (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 67 points, or 1.6%, above fair value in a buy-the-dip trade, as oil prices dip below $120 per barrel ($119.38, -4.32, -3.5%). Oil is cooling off after rising 35% since Feb. 25, but the negative action has also coincided with a report from Reuters citing positive-sounding rhetoric from Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson. She said that Moscow doesn’t want to overthrow the Kyiv government and that it hopes progress can be made in upcoming talks. The softer stance, however, contrasts with news that Russian forces continue to push towards Kyiv. On a related note, the EU and UK tightened sanctions against Russia on Wednesday. Treasury yields, meanwhile, continue to push higher on inflation and rate-hike expectations after China reported hotter-than-expected CPI data for February. The 2-yr yield is up four basis points to 1.67%, and the 10-yr yield is up four basis points to 1.91%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 98.61 (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 moved below the important support level of 4222.62 and closed lower at 4170.70. A test of potential support at 4114.65 seemed inevitable, but this morning S&P 500 futures… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade nine points, or 0.2%, above fair value as the futures market tries to stabilize from yesterday’s sell-off. The positive bias has formed without there being a decisively negative headline on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Encouragingly, Russian forces have significantly slowed their advance ahead of a key diplomatic meeting on Thursday, according to Reuters, citing a Ukrainian presidential adviser. Commodity markets, to be fair, aren’t behaving like things are getting better. Oil prices remain elevated above $120 per barrel ($121.81, +2.41, +2.0%) amid news that the EU is planning to phase out purchases of Russian energy. Treasury yields are selling off, driving yields higher amid the inflationary pressures. The 2-yr yield is up eight basis points to 1.62%, and the 10-yr yield is up 11 basis points to 1.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 98.98. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 4222.62 and closed at 4201.09, and the trading came with a massive 3,492,456,192 in volume. The index looks set to at least potentially test the old low of 4114.65 set on 2/24/2022. The best-case scenario now would be for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value as the market awaits the results of cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine. WTI crude futures briefly topped $116 per barrel overnight as Russian forces reportedly captured the southern city of Kherson, but prices have since retraced to $113.14 per barrel (+$2.48, +2.2%). Energy stocks are benefiting from the elevated oil prices in pre-market action. Software stocks Snowflake (SNOW 210.35, -54.34, -20.5%), Veeva Systems (VEEV 206.85, -23.77, -10.3%), and Okta (OKTA 170.03, -12.67, -6.9%), on the other hand, are showing weakness after providing underwhelming-to-disappointing guidance. Their weakness could be restraining interest in other growth stocks. Elsewhere, the Treasury market is behaving relatively quiet following three straight days of huge moves. The 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 1.50%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 97.57. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded above resistance at 4385.51 and closed higher at 4389.54. Technically the trading was a breakout, but we would like to see a follow through on higher volume to be sure the buyers are back in charge. The RSI… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 28 points, or 0.7%, above fair value in a buy-the-dip trade, even as oil prices top $110 per barrel this morning. WTI crude futures are currently up 6.3%, or $6.54, to $109.96/bbl, spurred by supply-constraint expectations brought on by the longer-than-expected Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion has entered its seventh day. President Biden, in his State of the Union Address last night, said the U.S. is ready to release more oil into the market, if necessary, unified with its allies. Recall, the U.S. and 30 other countries agreed yesterday to release 60 million barrels of oil, or 4% of their total emergency stockpiles. The market will soon hear a production decision from OPEC+, which is expected to stick to its schedule of increasing output by 400,000 barrels per day. Later, Fed Chair Powell will appear before Congress for his semiannual monetary policy testimony, starting today at 10:00 a.m. ET and continuing tomorrow morning. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 4287.11 and had a late day rally off that level to close lower at4306.26. The hold of support was encouraging, and we… Read More
Headline News: U.S.stock futures are set to open lower after oil prices increased overnight due to Russia and Ukraine’s continued tension. West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged by 5% and above $101 per barrel. That was the highest price per barrel in over seven years. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year note yield moved lower to 1.73% as a sign that investors are seeking safer investments. Markets: The S&P 500 traded lower below support at 4341.51 only to rally late in the day to close higher at 4373.94. The trading action was encouraging because buyers once again stepped to support the index. We feel today could be more to the same trading and don’t expect a big move in either direction. Possible resistance will remain at 4462.05, and potential support could come in at 4341.51 and 4287.11. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 39 points and trade 0.9% below fair value following some negative-sounding developments on the Russia-Ukraine situation. The benchmark index enters the session up 6.6% from last Thursday’s low. Briefly, President Putin put Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert in response to further involvement/sanctions from the West. Several countries, including the U.S., announced they would block selected Russian banks from using the SWIFT messaging system, although banks involved in energy will not be removed. Russia closed its stock market today, and its central bank increased rates to 20% from 9.5% to help protect its beleaguered ruble currency. Ukraine President Zelensky has expressed skepticism regarding the outcome of planned talks with Russia today. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P rallied past resistance at 4341.51 and closed higher at 4384.65 to end last week. Potential resistance is now at the 200-day moving average at4660.74, but we don’t feel that level will be tested today. Traders could look to take some quick profits after buying near the low of 4114.65 on 2/24/2022. If so, potential support could come in at 4341.51, 4287.11, and then 4222.62. However, RSI is still showing a… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open after erasing losses earlier this morning. Investors continue to monitor the risks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, PCE, rose at the fastest rate in 38 years. The year-over-year number increased by 5.2%, just above expectations of 5.1%. Including food and energy, the PCE was higher by 6.1%, the most significant gain since February of 1982. Also, consumer spending increased more than forecast at 2.1%, and personal income was flat for the month. Markets: The S&P staged an impressive 4.4% rally from low to high on Thursday, closing 1.5% higher at4228.70. The index also closed above resistance 4287.11, which will now become potential support. There is now a positive divergence in the RSI index as it did not make a new low along with the S&P 500. That is a sign the selling power is waning after four days in a row of lower closes. We feel there could be more buying today as more investors look to buy the dip, and the 4341.51 level could possibly be resistance. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III… Read More
