Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 4 points and are trading slightly above fair value. Equity futures are not doing much this morning. It’s a bit of a wait-and-see trade with market participants looking to see if the market can build on yesterday’s gain. Participants also await the ECB decision and Fed Chair Powell’s discussion at the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference later this morning. In overseas news, British Prime Minister Truss announced that a fracking ban will be lifted and that household energy bills will be limited to GBP2,500 per annum for the next two years. Japan’s Q2 GDP was better-than-expected at 3.5% year-over-year from the last reading of 2.2% year-over-year. Japan’s deputy chief cabinet secretary said that the yen’s movement is being watched with a strong sense of urgency. USD/JPY -0.2% to 143.46. Energy complex futures are mixed after yesterday’s sell-off. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2% to $82.06/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 0.2% to $7.82/mmbtu. Treasury yields are lower… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 76 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 186 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Equity futures are positive after last week’s selling. There’s a lingering feeling the market may be due for a bounce from a short-term oversold condition. There’s some central bank news in the mix. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash target rate by 50 basis points to 2.35%, as expected, and said more rate hikes are likely but won’t be on a pre-set path. A focal point this week will be the ECB meeting on Thursday and whether the central bank raises its key policy rate by 50 basis points or 75 basis points. According to The Wall Street Journal, Russia has indicated that the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be long-lasting. On a related note, OPEC+ is implementing a small production cut of 100,000 barrels per day. Energy complex futures are trending lower, with WTI crude oil futures down 0.2% to $86.68/bbl. Natural gas futures are… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 1 point and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 3 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 4 points and are trading slightly above fair value. Market participants lack conviction in the premarket trade, with equity futures mixed ahead of the August Jobs Report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Overseas, Chinese tech hub Shenzhen is extending Covid curbs on public activities but stopped short of a full lockdown, according to Reuters. Energy complex futures are mixed with WTI crude oil futures up 1.7% to $88.09/bbl, while natural gas futures are down 3.1% to $8.98/mmbtu. Treasury yields are modestly lower, with the 2-yr note yield down six basis points to 3.47%. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.25%. The closely watched August Jobs Report includes: Nonfarm Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 300,000; prior 528,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 280,000; prior 471,000), Average Hourly Earnings (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%), Unemployment Rate (Briefing.com consensus 3.5%; prior 3.5%), and Average Workweek (Briefing.com consensus 34.6; prior 34.6). At 10:00 a.m. ET, July Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 2.0%)… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. General concerns about slowing growth, rate hikes, and inflation are fueling carryover negativity from recent sessions. Weakness this morning comes after several days of trying to stage a rebound that then gets sold into. Some macro headlines this morning add fuel to the existing concerns, including news that China locked down Chengdu (21.2 million population) for COVID testing. China also had a weak August Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which came in below 50.0, indicating contraction. In Europe, August Manufacturing PMI from Germany, the UK, France, Spain, and the Eurozone all showed contraction with below-50.0 readings. Sentiment is also pressured by news that the US government will restrict sales of semiconductors to Russia and China, bringing down some semiconductor names in premarket action. Energy complex futures are trending lower. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.4% to $88.26/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 0.4% to $9.09/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 73 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 8 points and are trading slightly above fair value. Equity futures are mixed this morning. Strength in the mega caps is helping performance along with some hope that the market can forge a rebound effort today. In a Wall Street Journal interview, New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) said that combating inflation is likely to require lifting the benchmark rate above 3.5% and holding it there for a while. There are also some economic data from overseas in play, including China’s Manufacturing PMI coming in stronger than expected but remaining in contraction for the second consecutive month in the August reading. Eurozone’s CPI increased 9.1% yr/yr in the flash reading for August, accelerating past its peak in July. Also, Russia halted gas supplies from Europe’s key supply route today, as previously indicated, according to Reuters. Amid the aforementioned headlines, energy complex futures trade mixed this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 2.9% to $88.94/bbl ,while natural gas futures… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 26 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 108 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 176 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open in a reflective rebound following losses in the last two sessions. Bloomberg is reporting that the EU is set to meet its gas storage filling goal two months ahead of target. European Commission President von der Leyen said that an emergency intervention is being planned to rein in energy prices. Energy complex futures are trending lower amid the aforementioned macro headlines, as well as an understanding that Shenzhen is imposing COVID restrictions. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.0% to $94.03/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 1.1% to $9.23/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 3.6% to $2.61/gal. Treasury yields are drifting lower. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.42%, while the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.06%. Market participants will receive the June FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 1.4%) and June S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.com… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 55 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Futures are weaker amid nervousness that the moment participants have been waiting for all week is at hand. The July PCE Price Index is out at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole symposium speech at 10:00 a.m. ET. Commodity prices are on the rise. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.2% to $93.66/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.7% to $9.51/mmbtu. Copper futures are up 1.8% to $3.76/lb. The Treasury market is mixed this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.38% while the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.07%. At 8:30 a.m. ET market participants will receive the July PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 1.0%) and core PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.6%) included in the Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 0.6%) and Spending Report (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 1.1%). July Advanced Intl.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 94 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 123 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Futures are indicating a higher open after some better-than-expected earnings reports from technology companies. Salesforce Inc (CRM) and NVIDIA (NVDA), though disappointed with guidance. Tesla (TSLA) is providing some underlying support as its shares move up with a 3-for-1 stock split that takes effect today. Other mega-cap stocks are sporting gains in premarket action that have also helped the standing of the futures market. In overseas news, Germany’s Q2 GDP was revised higher by ten basis points after the flash reading showed no growth. The Bank of Korea raised its base rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, as expected. Treasury yields are little changed this morning. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.09%, while the 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.37%. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (not an FOMC voter) said he’s not sure the U.S. has reached peak inflation, and Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 7 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 26 points and are slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The market is still in wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. Notably, the PCE Price Index for July will be released shortly before that speech. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (2023 FOMC voter) said it’s not the time to back off the inflation fight, according to The Wall Street Journal. There are reports suggesting President Biden will announce today a move to forgive up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning less than $125,000 a year. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index was down 1.2%, with purchases down 1.0% while refinancing applications were down 3.0%. Oil prices are rising this morning, with WTI crude oil futures up 1.1% to $94.71/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 0.2% to $9.37/mmbtu. Treasury yields are inching higher, too. The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.05%, while the 2-yr note… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 46 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 194 points and are 1.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 302 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. Futures for the major indices indicate a lower open, with market participants still feeling the market is due for a consolidation period after getting ahead of itself with recent gains. There is some anxiousness in play this morning ahead of the Jackson Hole Fed symposium this week, with Chairman Powell set to speak on Friday. In other central bank news, European Central Bank policymaker Nagel said that the ECB must keep raising rates regardless of the risk of recession. On the flip side, the People’s Bank of China lowered its one-year loan prime rate by five basis points to 3.65%, and the five-year loan prime rate was lowered by 15 bps to 4.30%. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.1% to $90.40/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 4.8% to $9.78/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 0.4% to $3.00/gal. Treasury yields are mixed, with the 2-yr note yield up one basis point to… Read More
