Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 14 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 54 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open, thanks in part to gains in the mega-cap space, positive reactions to earnings news from the likes of Zoom Video (ZM) and Target (TGT), and technical buying interest after the S&P 500 managed to eke out a close yesterday above its 50-day moving average (3,979). The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 4.80%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.93%. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.8% to $77.03/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 0.8% to $2.83/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded up to resistance at 4015.39, tested support at 3979.73, and closed lower at 3982.24. The index did close above the lower Bollinger Band, and RSI closed higher at 43.36. So, a new trading range might be forming, and hopefully, a small base will form at these levels. If… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open with no clear catalysts for the positive bias. The S&P 500 maintaining a position above its 200-day moving average last week may be fostering some willingness to buy on weakness. Market participants will receive a slate of earnings news this week, with many of the notable names coming out of the retail and tech spaces. Treasury yields are moving up this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.83%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.96%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to the 200-day moving average and quickly bounced higher to close at 3970.04. However, the RSI index did not move higher in support of the bounce, closing lower at 41.81. Today, the S&P 500 remains at the lower Bollinger Band, which should cause… Read More
Headline News: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred assessment of how quickly prices are rising across the economy — rose 0.6% in January and 5.4% from last year. On a “core” basis, which strips out volatile food and energy components, prices rose 0.6% for the month and 4.7% from last year. The report from the Commerce Department also showed that consumer spending rose 1.8% last month from December after falling the previous month. The numbers support recent indications inflation is not falling at the pace, and extent investors have been hoping for, even as prices have stabilized from the peaks of the current inflation cycle. (Alexandra Semenova Yahoo Finance) Markets: The S&P 500 briefly traded below the 50-day moving average at 3980.89 but rallied sharply later to close at 4012.32. The RSI index also rallied in support but could not get above the 50 level closing at 45.86. The trading action was just as we had hoped, but the inflation report released this morning has the S&P 500 futures lower by 1.26%. If that holds, the index would open at 3967.50, well below the 50-day moving average, and make the 200-day moving average, 3940.23,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 107 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 79 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open, fueled by some buying the dip interest in the growth stock space after investors had a good response to NVIDIA’s (NVDA) better-than-expected earnings and guidance. A general buy-the-dip trade is helping to support the broader market on the heels of the fourth straight-down day and a close below the 4,000 level for the S&P 500. Treasury yields are little changed this morning. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.70%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.94%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 104.48. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.1% to $74.77/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 2.5% to $2.12/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower for the fourth day after testing and holding at the 50-day moving average. The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 98 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open, following through with yesterday’s sell-off. Worries about the Fed raising rates more than expected are still driving price action, along with normal consolidation efforts following a big run in a short amount of time. The 10-yr Treasury note yield hit 3.92% overnight, but it pulled back to 3.88%. The 2-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.70%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.7% to 104.58. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.0% to $76.13/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 2.3% to $2.33/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied early but moved below support at 4100.96 and closed at 4090.41. The RSI index also moved lower, closing at 53.48, suggesting more selling could be coming in today. The 20-day moving average is now the next potential support area, and we believe that… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 41 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 83 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Equity futures are modestly lower as investors await some market-moving economic data this morning, including retail sales and industrial production from January. Treasury yields are little changed in front of this morning’s data releases, but the rise in rates recently has the market worried about valuation constraints and competition for stocks. The Biden Administration officially announced that Fed Vice Chair Brainard would lead the National Economic Council and Jared Bernstein will head the Council of Economic Advisors. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 7.7%, with purchase applications declining 6.0% while refinancing applications fell 13.0%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below support at 4100.96 only to rally and close higher at 4136.13. The volume was once again low, with only 2,178,107,392 shares traded, and RSI was flat, closing at 59.58. Potential support at 4100.96 should hold again today while the 20-day moving… Read More
Headline News: Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising shelter, gas, and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% for the month, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%. Excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%. (Jeff Cox) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 4100.96 and closed higher at 4137.29, and RSI also turned higher in support of the rally. However, the volume over the two-day rally has been below average; up volume was only 75% yesterday. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are flat to start the day after January’s CPI report release. If selling should come in today, we feel the potential support at 4100.96 will hold, and if so, there could be a base-building phase at these levels that would be bullish. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 75 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 52 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open, with the Nasdaq 100 futures outperforming thanks to upside leadership from the mega-cap space. Moves are otherwise modest in scope as investors await key data releases next week, including the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, and Producer Price Index reports, all from January. The EU Commission’s winter forecast called for 0.9% growth in the eurozone versus 0.6% in the autumn forecast, while the outlook for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.5%. Geopolitical angst is also in play this morning after the U.S. shot down three flying objects over Alaska, Canada, and Michigan over the last three days. This follows the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down last week. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up four basis points to 4.55%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 103.52. Energy complex futures… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 27 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 135 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 162 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open following yesterday’s reversal that took the S&P 500 below 4,100. Investors are still trading cautiously. Oil prices rose sharply overnight ($79.71/bbl, +1.65, +2.1%) following reports that Russia is aiming to lower its March oil output by 500,000 barrels, according to Bloomberg, in response to sanctions. Treasury yields remain elevated, keeping pressure on the equity market. The 2-yr note yield sits at 4.51%, and the 10-yr note yield is at 3.70%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 103.48. Market participants will receive the following economic data today: 10:00 ET: February Preliminary the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 65.0; prior 64.9) 14:00 ET: January Treasury Budget (prior -$85.0B) (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 4100.96 to close at 4081.50. The volume came in at 2,565,760,768, with down volume of 75%, showing… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 136 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 197 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Futures for the major indices are moving higher this morning as investors continue to show a willingness to buy on weakness. Sentiment is also boosted by a decidedly positive response to Disney’s earnings news. Investors are also reacting to relatively pleasing inflation data from Germany. Specifically, Germany’s preliminary January CPI was better than feared on a year-over-year basis and showed deceleration from peak inflation. A decent pullback in Treasury yields has been another supportive factor to the equity futures market this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.43% and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.59%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 102.88. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4117.86 but was able to hold at the support level of 4100.96. The RSI index closed at a new low for… Read More
