Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 14 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Stock futures are flattish as investors await key events later this week, including the FOMC decision on Wednesday, the ECB meeting, and the April Employment Report on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. ET, market participants will receive the April ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 46.8%; prior 46.3%). This comes after China reported weaker-than-expected PMI data for April (actual 49.2; expected 51.4). Other U.S. economic data today includes the final IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 50.4) for April at 9:45 a.m. ET and the Construction Spending report (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%; prior -0.1%) for March at 10:00 a.m. ET Treasuries are little changed from Friday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.06%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.46%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 101.83. Energy complex futures are moving lower. WTI crude oil futures are down 2.1% to $75.14/bbl, and natural gas… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 143 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures are weaker this morning after yesterday’s welcome, and perhaps overdone, rally effort. Amazon.com (AMZN) has been a notable drag on sentiment, retreating after beating earnings estimates but disappointing investors with its cloud-computing outlook. There was also some weak economic data from Europe that has stoked global slowdown concerns. Briefly, GDP growth in Q1 was slower than expected in the eurozone (actual 0.1% qtr/qtr; expected 0.2%) and Germany (actual -0.1% qtr/qtr; expected 0.3%), while Consumer Price Index data from France (actual 0.6% m/m; expected 0.4%) reflected accelerating inflation in April. Separately, the Bank of Japan made no changes to its yield curve control policy. Treasury yields moving lower with global growth concerns back in play. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.07%, and the 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 3.48% (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 53 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures are weak this morning despite some pleasing earnings and/or guidance from the likes of McDonald’s (MCD), PepsiCo (PEP), and General Motors (GM). Strength from these names has not been enough to offset the fallout in First Republic Bank (FRC). FRC’s earnings report brought worries about the bank industry back to the forefront, along with Standard Chartered CEO’s warning that the banking sector may have other issues that could “come home to roost in some form of a crisis,” according to CNBC. Tempered sales guidance from UPS, which it attributed in part to changing consumer behavior, has also contributed to this morning’s negative disposition by fostering concerns about broader economic growth and earnings prospects. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 4.07%, and the 10-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 3.45%. Separately, President Biden announced his reelection campaign. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio &… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 8 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 30 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Stock futures are somewhat mixed, and little changed in front of a heavy week of earnings. Investors are eyeing potentially market-moving reports from Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) after the close of April 25, Meta Platforms (META) after the close of April 26, and Amazon.com (AMZN) after the close of April 27. Also, First Republic Bank (FRC), which was in the middle of some of the bank industry fallout, reports earnings after the close today. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the House would vote on a debt ceiling bill this week, and he believes it will pass the chamber, according to Reuters. This bill will be dead on arrival in the Senate due to Democratic opposition. Many GOP lawmakers are prepared to let a default happen, according to the Washington Post. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 4.17%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 7 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 56 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 24 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Futures for the equity market skew slightly negative on this options expiration day. The downward bias stems from some disappointment that the S&P 500 has had a lackluster showing during the early stages of earnings season and has been unable to make a run at the 4,200 level with any conviction. Also, there is some trepidation ahead of earnings results next week from the mega cap stocks. The Shanghai Composite dropped 2.0% today following a Bloomberg report that the PBOC might start dialing back the stimulus it provided during depths of COVID pandemic. There is also some speculation that China is going to tighten restrictions on technology companies. Flash Services PMI readings from Germany, France, and the U.K. improved, coming in above expectations, but Manufacturing PMI readings from all three countries slipped deeper into contraction. U.S. economic data today is limited to the preliminary IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 49.2) and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 32 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 139 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 190 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. Earnings results have been coming in better than expected recently, yet the latest batch of results has had its share of earnings misses, which is weighing on investor sentiment. Tesla (TSLA) is among the most influential stocks reacting negatively after its earnings report and is dragging on the Nasdaq 100 futures. Dow component American Express (AXP) is also down after its earnings report, while IBM (IBM) is showing some strength. Concerns about an economic slowdown have driven buying interest in the Treasury market. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.21%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.57%. Energy complex futures are moving lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.6% to $77.94/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 0.7% to $2.21/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 tested support and resistance, and both… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 26 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 109 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 135 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The stock market is headed for a lower open as investors digest a slate of earnings news. The Nasdaq 100 futures are lagging, feeling the pinch of an earnings-driven loss in Netflix along with weakness from mega-cap components. Treasury yields have been rising, reflecting concerns about the Fed’s policy path, which has acted as a headwind for growth stocks that have made a big run recently. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Eurozone and the U.K. showed no improvement in core inflation. In the eurozone, core-CPI rose to 5.7% year-over-year in March from 5.6% and in the U.K., core-CPI was up 6.2% year-over-year, unchanged from February. The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.27%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.62%. The inflation reports have overshadowed an 8.8% week-over-week decline in mortgage applications. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) … Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperform thanks to gains in JPMorgan (JPM) and UnitedHealth (UNH), which are helping to offset weakness in Boeing (BA). Meanwhile, losses in the mega space have weighed down the broader market despite some underlying strength from bank stocks following this morning’s earnings reports. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial all reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings. Citigroup will be releasing its results shortly. In other news, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will introduce a plan next week to raise the debt ceiling for one year with spending cuts, according to Bloomberg. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.46%. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 100.99. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply, moving past… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 8 points and are trading fractionally above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 18 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The equity futures market has a tentative disposition as participants await the March Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET. In addition, there’s some hesitancy ahead of Q1 earnings reporting season, starting tomorrow with several large banks. There is a growing sense that the European Central Bank will announce a 25-bps rate increase at its May meeting, according to Reuters. China reported much better than expected trade data for March. The trade surplus narrowed to $88.19 billion (expected $39.2 billion) from $116.88 billion, with exports jumping 14.8% on a year-over-year basis (expected -7.0%) and imports declining by a less than expected 1.4% (expected -5.0%). Treasury yields are slightly higher. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.43%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 101.35. WTI crude oil futures… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures climbed on Wednesday morning after a key inflation reading showed that consumer prices rose less than expected in March. Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.8% higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 221 points, or 0.6%, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1%. The March consumer price index showed a rise of 0.1% in March. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting CPI to rise by 0.2% month over month. The report could impact the Federal Reserve’s rate decision come May. It may also cement the case for a stop to the central bank’s rate-hiking regime. “It kind of feels like the calm before the storm,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. “I mean its light volume, not a lot of big moves today. Traders are just kind of getting the eye on the prize, looking to that big CPI number.” Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting are also due out Wednesday and slated to offer further clues into the mindset behind the central bank’s 25 basis point hike in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and the turmoil that rattled the broader banking sector. (Samantha Subin CNBC) Markets: The… Read More
