Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 37 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 18 points and are trading fractionally above fair value. Stock futures are modestly higher, driven by carryover momentum from yesterday’s rally, continued strength in regional bank stocks, and a positive response to earnings results from one of the nation’s largest retailers. Ongoing optimism about the debt ceiling discussions is also helping. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.18%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.60%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 broke out of the six-day base, closing sharply higher at 4158.77. The volume was higher, with 2,421,476,096 shares traded, and 81% was up volume. Also, RSI closed substantially higher at 56.84 in support of the rally. Traders appeared to be encouraged that a debt ceiling deal would get done before the deadline and that news could be a catalyst to possibly move the S&P 500… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 130 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures have been sporting a positive disposition so far this morning. Some optimism about the debt ceiling talks, along with encouraging deposit growth in large regionals, seem to be overshadowing lingering worries about economic growth after a large retailer indicated that sales trends softened in the first quarter. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.07%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.51%. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.7%, with purchase applications declining 4.8% and refinancing applications dropping 8.0%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 tested resistance at 4133.13 and then sold off below the 20-day moving average at 4122.94 to closer lower at 4109.90. The volume was slightly higher, with 2,172,300,544 shares traded, and the down volume was only 61% of the total. The RSI index also moved… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Equity futures trade on a softer note. There’s not a big negative bias, yet not a lot of follow-through buying either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lags due to a decent loss in a large retail home center, which beat earnings estimates, but disappointed with sales and issued below-consensus FY24 EPS guidance and revenue guidance. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling is still a limiting factor after Treasury Secretary Yellen warned again yesterday that the Treasury will likely not be able to meet all the government’s obligations potentially as early as June 1. President Biden will meet with congressional leaders to discuss the debt ceiling today at 3:00 p.m. ET, according to Reuters. Concerns about global growth are another factor weighing on sentiment this morning after China reported a slate of disappointing economic data from April, including retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 14 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 128 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Stock futures have a positive disposition this morning. Some M&A activity has boosted sentiment due to pleasing premiums, while concerns around the debt ceiling have eased somewhat after reports suggested that debt ceiling discussions have been productive. President Biden will meet with congressional leaders on the debt ceiling on Tuesday, and he is optimistic a deal will be reached, according to Reuters. Treasury yields are mostly moving higher. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.01%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 102.46. Energy complex futures trade up. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.6% to $70.47/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 1.4% to $2.47/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a wide range for the third day and closed lower at 4133.13. The index closed… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 5 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 118 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures are softer this morning. The NASDAQ 100 futures have outperformed somewhat thanks to pre-market gains in some mega-cap stocks. Concerns about the debt ceiling continue to weigh on sentiment, along with renewed weakness in the regional bank stocks. Treasury Secretary Yellen issued a fresh warning, saying that a default would be “unthinkable” and that it would undermine the global economy. Former President Trump said in a live town hall hosted by CNN that the GOP should let a default happen if Democrats don’t agree to spending cuts. The Bank of England voted 7-2 to raise its base rate by 25 bps to 4.50%, as expected. China’s April CPI increased at its slowest yr/yr pace since early 2021, while PPI fell at its fastest rate since 2020, triggering some concerns about the pace of its economic rebound in conjunction with weaker-than-expected new loan data. Market participants are awaiting the U.S.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open after yesterday’s flattish finish. Continued softness in regional bank stocks coupled with nervousness about the debt ceiling has contributed to the negative bias this morning. This comes ahead of President Biden’s meeting with Congressional leaders about the debt ceiling today at 4:00 p.m. ET. Market participants are also digesting some tepid trade data out of China. The trade surplus rose to $90.21 billion in April (expected surplus of $71.60 bln; prior surplus of $88.19 bln), with imports falling 7.9% year/year (expected -5.0%; prior -1.4%) while exports rose 8.5% (expected 8.0%; last 14.8%). Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.49%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 101.66. Energy complex futures are giving back some of yesterday’s gains. WTI crude… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 7 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 78 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures have been mixed this morning, yet skew somewhat more positive. Market participants are waiting to see if there will be any follow-through on Friday’s rally. This week also brings another batch of potentially market-moving events. Namely, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey will be released today, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of “economic chaos” if the debt ceiling is not raised, according to CNBC. This comes ahead of President Biden’s meeting with House Speaker McCarthy and other Congressional leaders on May 9. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 3.96%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.46%. Oil prices are sharply higher, up 2.8% to $73.32/bbl. Economic data today is limited to the Wholesale Inventories report for March (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.1%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 88 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 180 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Stock futures have a positive disposition, boosted by a decent earnings-related gain in a large tech company along with rebound price action in regional bank stocks after sharp declines recently. Investors are eagerly anticipating a potentially market-moving April Employment Report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasury yields are moving higher as the flight to safety trade unwinds somewhat. The 2-yr note yield is up nine basis points to 3.83% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 3.41%. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 101.39. Oil prices are reclaiming lost ground, trading back above $70.00/bbl, up 2.7% to $70.42/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off for a fourth day and moved below support to close lower at 4061.22. The index is now at the lower Bollinger Band and just above possible support at the 50-day moving average (4039.20). The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 10 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 118 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures are weak on the heels of yesterday’s FOMC decision and with concerns over the regional bank industry back at the fore. Relative strength in some mega-cap stocks is offering some support to the Nasdaq 100 futures, presumably driven by some flight to safety buying interest. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the FOMC rate hike with a 25-bps increase to 5.50%, and the Norges Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.25%, as expected. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise its key lending rates at 8:15 ET. Treasury yields are sharply lower. The 2-yr note yield is down 15 basis points to 3.80%, and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.35%. Market participants will receive the following economic data today: 8:30 ET: Preliminary Q1 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 1.7%), preliminary Q1 Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 3.9%; prior 3.2%),… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 7 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 9 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 81 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Stock futures have a somewhat negative bias, but moves are narrow. There’s a lot of news to digest this morning that has limited investor conviction at this juncture. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the debt ceiling could be hit as early as June 1. President Biden will meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders on May 9 to discuss the debt ceiling. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%. Manufacturing PMIs from the eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the U.K. for April were all down from the March readings. Core CPI from the eurozone was slightly better than expected at 1.0% month/month (expected 1.1%). The 2-yr note yield up one basis point to 4.13%. The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.53%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied… Read More
