Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 23 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 103 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 63 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The market is poised to win back some of yesterday’s FOMC-induced declines. Pre-open gains in mega-cap stocks have provided support to the broader market this morning ahead of some earnings reports this afternoon. The 10-year note yield is down another five basis points at 3.92%, providing additional support to equities. The 2-year note yield is unchanged at 4.23%. The Bank of England followed the Fed’s move yesterday, leaving rates unchanged at 5.25%. Unlike the Fed, the vote was not unanimous, with 6 members voting in favor of holding rates steady, two voting for another 25 basis points rate hike, while one voter favored a 25 basis points cut. In other news, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory for the third month in a row while Japan’s Manufacturing PMI pointed to a continued contraction for the eighth month in a row. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets:… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 156 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 48 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are firmly lower this morning due to losses in some major constituents following their earnings results. Another influential pre-open laggard is down following news that a Delaware judge agreed to void the CEO’s $56 billion compensation package, according to CNBC. There’s an element of hesitation in play in front of the FOMC decision at 2:00 ET, which is followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 ET. Participants expect no change in the fed funds rate, but are eager to hear any shifts in rhetoric around rate cuts. Also, the Treasury Department will make its quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasury yields are slightly lower this morning. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.02%, and the 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.31%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets:… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down four points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 68 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 23 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open, weighed down by weakness in semiconductor stocks after disappointing Q1 guidance from a key name. Other names that reported earnings have garnered mostly negative responses, too. The tone in the market could shift, though, after the release of the December Personal Income and Spending report at 8:30 ET, which features the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation (i.e. the PCE Price Indexes). The Treasury market is little changed from yesterday in front of the data. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.32%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.13%. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.9% to $76.63/bbl, giving back some of yesterday’s gains. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range and closed lower at 4,890.97 on Friday. We feel the trading could be the same today as markets await… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down four points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 68 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 23 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open, weighed down by weakness in semiconductor stocks after disappointing Q1 guidance from a key name. Other names that reported earnings have garnered mostly negative responses, too. The tone in the market could shift, though, after the release of the December Personal Income and Spending report at 8:30 ET, which features the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation (i.e. the PCE Price Indexes). The Treasury market is little changed from yesterday in front of the data. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.32%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.13%. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.9% to $76.63/bbl, giving back some of yesterday’s gains. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 4,894.16, and the up volume was 73% of the total volume. However, large-cap stocks are providing the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading roughly in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures have been mixed and somewhat flat. Market participants are digesting another mixed slate of earnings news that has the market lacking direction. A wait-and-see mindset in front of the Advance Q4 GDP report at 8:30 ET has also contributed to the muted price action this morning. Before that, the European Central Bank has a policy announcement at 8:15 ET. Other U.S. economic data today includes: (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P rallied to a new intraday all-time high of 4,903.68, but selling came in swiftly, and the index closed at 4868.55. The RSI index is now in the overbought zone, which should cause some selling today. If so, there is possible support at 4,802.98 and the potential strong support at the 20-day moving average at 4,776.01 that we feel will hold if tested. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 56 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. This holiday-shortened week is setting up to start on a lower note due in part to pre-open losses in some influential stocks. Rising market rates have also contributed to the negative bias this morning. The 10-year note yield is back above 4.00%, up six basis points from Friday at 4.01%. The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points from Friday at 4.21%. Geopolitical worries are still in play this week after a Houthi missile struck a U.S. commercial ship, according to The New York Times. Also, China is expected to increase coercive measures towards Taiwan, according to Axios, after Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s presidential election. On a China-related note, the People’s Bank of China left its medium-term policy rate unchanged, but there was speculation about more stimulus in the near future. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 did rally to close above the 20-day… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 135 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 71 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Pre-open gains in mega-cap stocks have boosted futures tied to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 after the market started the week with losses, predicated on the notion that the Fed may not cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market hoped. This rethink was partially related to strong economic data this week, so market participants will be keenly focused on this morning’s release of the weekly jobless claims report and December Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8:30 ET. Treasury yields are slightly lower than yesterday in front of the data. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.33% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.09%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off down to 4,714.82 but rallied late to close at 4,739.21, while the RSI index did not rally, closing lower at 55.58.… Read More
Headline News: Stock futures were lower Wednesday as yields continued to track higher, putting Wall Street on track to build on the losses from the previous session. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 158 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Retail sales data for December came in hotter-than-expected, indicating a resilient consumer and putting aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve into doubt. Retail sales were up 0.6% and 0.4% excluding autos. Economists polled by Dow Jones had estimated 0.4% increase in retail sales and 0.2% ex-autos. The 10-year Treasury yield was last trading nearly 4 basis points higher at 4.104%, continuing its rise from Tuesday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned easing monetary policy may come slower than anticipated. (Hakyung Kim and Samantha Subin CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to the 20-day moving average at 4,750.22 and held that support level. The index then rallied off that level to close at 4,765.98. However, the RSI index did not finish higher, which shows the selling might not be done. Also, overnight, the Chinese Hang Seng index closed lower by 3.7% on disappointing growth data, which could lead to more selling in the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 56 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. This holiday-shortened week is setting up to start on a lower note due in part to pre-open losses in some influential stocks. Rising market rates have also contributed to the negative bias this morning. The 10-year note yield is back above 4.00%, up six basis points from Friday at 4.01%. The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points from Friday at 4.21%. Geopolitical worries are still in play this week after a Houthi missile struck a U.S. commercial ship, according to The New York Times. Also, China is expected to increase coercive measures towards Taiwan, according to Axios, after Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s presidential election. On a China-related note, the People’s Bank of China left its medium-term policy rate unchanged, but there was speculation about more stimulus in the near future. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 4,793.30 and is now under… Read More
Headline News: Inflation and its impact on bond markets and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory remain the primary focus for investors — at least until Friday when some of the big banks will kick off the fourth-quarter 2023 earnings season. The S&P 500 sits just 40 points, or 0.8%, shy of its record high of 4796.6 touched a little over two years ago, after rallying strongly in the last few months primarily on hopes easing inflation will allow the Fed to lower interest rates in 2024. Ten-year Treasury yields, the benchmark for borrowing costs, have fallen from 5% in October to the current 4.003%. For this bullish narrative to play out, inflation must be seen continuing to fall back to the central bank’s 2% target. Great importance is therefore being placed on the consumer price index for December, which will be published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday. Economists forecast that annual headline CPI inflation will inch up from 3.1% in November to 3.2% last month. The core reading, which strips out more volatile items like food and energy, is expected to fall from 4% to 3.8%. (Jamie Chisholm Market Watch) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 4,756.50 and… Read More
