The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 75 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 183 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.
Stock futures indicate a lower open after the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average on Friday. Action in the Treasury market is keeping the stock market in check after the 10-year yield passed 5.00% again. It is currently up seven basis points from Friday’s settlement at 4.99%. The 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 5.11%.
Relatively weak mega caps in pre-open trading are having a disproportionate influence on the broader market. On a related note, earnings reporting season picks up this week, highlighted by some mega-cap tech companies.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are another limiting factor this morning. Israel is stepping up its airstrikes against Hamas; meanwhile, Israel’s military is contending with increasing attacks from Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon, according to The New York Times, indicating an increased potential for a wider regional conflict.
The House of Representatives is still without a Speaker. Nine GOP candidates have declared their interest in the Speaker position. House Republicans are expected to hold a candidate forum later tonight, according to CNN.
Key economic data later in the week includes Q3 GDP on Thursday and the Personal Income and Spending report on Friday, which features the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (the PCE Price Indexes).
(Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)
The S&P 500 sold off sharply for the third day and closed lower at 4224.16. While we were looking for a new uptrend, it is now apparent a new downtrend is in place. The new downtrend was confirmed when the S&P closed below the 200-day moving average. A rally off these levels would be a double bottom, which we were also hopefully would form, but the momentum is now clearly to the downside for now, and a 5% 10-year Treasury Bond is not helping. Potential support could now come in at 4212.99 and then at 4166.15. Possible resistance is now at the 200-day moving average at 4233.14.
We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish.
John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The indicator is cumulative, with a positive number being added to the prior number, or if the number is negative, it is subtracted from the prior number.
The A/D line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs.
The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.
The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) is a stock market index made up of 103 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. It is based on exchange, and it is not an index of U.S.-based companies.