Morning Brief
Headline News:
The S&P 500 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 134 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.
Weakness in stock futures is a reflection of more skittishness about the debt ceiling. Reports indicate that discussions have reached an impasse and that no additional meetings are scheduled at this time.
Treasuries reflect some flight to safety action. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.28%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.67%.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 bps to 5.50% and indicated that the terminal rate had been reached.
The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index dropped 4.6%, with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinance applications dropping 5.0%.
(Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)
Markets:
The S&P 500 sold off below two support levels and closed at 4145.58. The volume was higher, with 2,413,644,800 shares traded, but the down volume was only 55% of the total. The RSI index also dove lower in support of the selling closing at 52.31. The selling was due to a stall in the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington, which is carrying over to this morning’s early trading. The S&P 500 is now just above the 20-day moving average at 4135.97 and a vertical trend line. Those should provide good support if tested, but if they fail, there is potential solid support at 4099.92. We feel a deal will get done on the debt ceiling, and the S&P 500 will start another uptrend.
We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish.
John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The indicator is cumulative, with a positive number being added to the prior number, or if the number is negative, it is subtracted from the prior number.
The A/D line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs.
The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.
The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) is a stock market index made up of 103 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. It is based on exchange, and it is not an index of U.S.-based companies.