The S&P 500 futures trade 21 points, or 0.5%, above fair value as the Q1 earnings reporting season begins in earnest following a rough patch in the market.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 130.00, -1.54, -1.2%) is continuing that rough patch after missing EPS estimates, while BlackRock (BLK 719.00, +2.17, +0.3%) and First Republic Bank (FRC 155.73, +0.68, +0.4%) are up modestly in pre-market action after beating EPS estimates.
On the economy, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon remained optimistic from a short-term perspective, but he cautioned that he sees significant geopolitical and economic challenges ahead due to high inflation, supply chain issues, and the war in Ukraine.
Delta Air Lines (DAL 40.97, +2.35, +6.1%) CEO corroborated Mr. Dimon’s short-term optimism with an observation that March 2022’s historic bookings quarter is continuing into April. DAL shares are up 6% after the company beat top and bottom-line estimates.
In economic data, investors will receive the Producer Price Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 1.3% following a 6.3% decline in the prior week.
U.S. Treasuries trade little changed. The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 2.39%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 2.73%. The U.S. Dollar Index is roughly unchanged at 100.27. WTI crude futures are up 1.7%, or $1.73, to $102.33/bbl.
(Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)
The S&P 500 traded above resistance at 4450.05 early, only to sell off below the 50-day moving, 4424.32, average and closed lower at 4397.45. RSI moved lower, closing at 44.29, and the volume came in lower at 2,206,498,816 shares traded. The break of the 50-day moving average is problematic, and the index must get back above the level ASAP before the downtrend continues. Potential support is now at 4362.84, which would be close to a 50% retracement of the rally off the 2/24/2022 low of 4114.65.
We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bearish.
John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The indicator is cumulative, with a positive number being added to the prior number, or if the number is negative it is subtracted from the prior number.
The A/D line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes, and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs.
The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50% and bullish/bearish divergences.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.
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