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Morning Commentary

April 18th, 2019

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Headline news:

U.S. futures were up 2.35 points as of 8:35 a.m. which points to muted open for markets today. Weak manufacturing data from Europe and Asia raised fears, once again, of a global slowdown. Investors will also await the release of the fuller Muller report later today. Of the 54 S&P 500 companies that have posted earnings so far,79.6% have beaten consensus.


We had one of our proprietary short-term indicators turn bearish during yesterday’s trading. So, we are now short bearish in our stance towards new purchases going forward. The S&P 500 an outside* day that had negative trading on higher than average volume.  The index is sitting on potential support at 2895.85, and we feel the index will potentially test support at 2873.33 over the next few days.


Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ended April 13th. That is the lowest level since September 1969 as reported by the Labor Department.  U.S. retail sales were 1.6% high in March, which is the strongest increase since September 2017. Both reports show a strong economy and a healthy job market.

We are currently long term bullish and short term bearish.

John N. Lilly III
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, Windsor Wealth
Windsor Wealth


The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum Oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, onions or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “ The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.



* An outside reversal is a price chart pattern that reveals when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session.  (Investopedia)


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