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Morning Commentary

April 11th, 2019

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Headline news:

U.S markets are set to open slightly higher today after investors received warnings from major central banks about a global slowdown. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that progress continues on a trade deal after a “productive” call with China’s Vice Premier Liu He.


The S&P had a low volume day and traded sideways as we had hoped it would. The index is still below the high for the year of 2895.77 set on 4/8/2019. We are concerned about the lack of volume during these most recent highs. This could be a sign that demand for stocks is drying up, so we still have short term caution on stocks going forward. We are looking for more sideways trading today.


The U.S. CPI rose less than expected which helped reinforce the Federal Reserve’s message of patience on interest rates. Core CPI rose only 0.1% and 2% from one year earlier. The FOMC minutes were released on Wednesday which showed the Fed is wrestling with “significant uncertainties”, and they are dealing with persistently low inflation. All this language, again, shows we should have low rates for the rest of the year.

We are currently long term bullish with short term caution.

John N. Lilly III
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, Windsor Wealth
Windsor Wealth


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The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum Oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, onions or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “ The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.




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