Daily Commentary
Headline news:
U.S. markets are set to open with heavy selling today after President Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico last night. Investors are worried this action could risk pushing the economy into a recession. European shares sold off on the news while Asian fell at first but rebounded to end the day.
Markets:
The S&P 500 closed higher with low volume and did not move back above the 2800 level. If the index should move through potential support at 2776.06, the next level of possible support will become 2725.00. This would be considered bad technical damage to the index and could exacerbate the selling of stocks. Traders will be on alert today for any break of these key support levels.
Economy:
The U.S. Ten-Year Treasury fell to its lowest yield since 2017 at 2.178 %. Economist are growing concerned this is another sign the U.S. economy could be heading for a recession. The fed funds futures are now predicting three rate cuts by the FOMC this year. Data on April consumer spending will be released today and could ease the recession fears if the data is positive.
We are currently long term bullish with short term cautious.
John N. Lilly III
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, Windsor Wealth
Windsor Wealth
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum Oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, onions or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “ The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.U.S. Government Bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the government, and if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. The 10-year Treasury note is a debt obligation issued by the United States government with a maturity of 10 years upon initial issuance. The CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note (TNX) is based on 10 times the yield-to-maturity on the most recently auctioned 10-year Treasury note.