U.S. stock futures are higher this morning a day after the S&P 500 was down 2.93% on Wednesday. The yield curve for the 2yr-10Yr inverted, which is often, not always, a predictor of a recession. Investors reacted negatively and moved to less risky assets. This morning retail sales for July rose 0.7% which beat expectations of a 0.3% rise in sales. Economist are still predicting another rate cut despite the upbeat retail number at the U.S. Central banks September meeting.
The S&P 500 is currently near two potential resistance levels after heavy selling on Wednesday. The first level could be a vertical trend line staring back in at the June low of 2840.00 The next likely support level will come in at the critical 2822.12 level at the August lows. The RSI index is still below the 50 level and moving lower. Volume picked up substantially on Wednesdays down day, so we are cautious for the short term at this time.
We are currently long term bullish and short term cautious.
John N. Lilly III
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, Windsor Wealth
Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is, therefore, a key element in economic growth
In finance, the yield curve is a curve showing several yields or interest rates across different contract lengths (2 month, 2 year, 20 year, etc. …) for a similar debt contract. The curve shows the relation between the (level of the) interest rate (or cost of borrowing) and the time to maturity, known as the “term”, of the debt for a given borrower in a given currency. For example, the U.S. dollar interest rates paid on U.S. Treasury securities for various maturities are closely watched by many traders, and are commonly plotted on a graph such as the one on the right which is informally called “the yield curve”. More formal mathematical descriptions of this relation are often called the term structure of interest rates.
The shape of the yield curve indicates the cumulative priorities of all lenders relative to a particular borrower (such as the US Treasury or the Treasury of Japan), or the priorities of a single lender relative to all possible borrowers. With other factors held equal, lenders will prefer to have funds at their disposal, rather than at the disposal of a third party. The interest rate is the “price” paid to convince them to lend. As the term of the loan increases, lenders demand an increase in the interest rate received. In addition, lenders may be concerned about future circumstances, e.g. a potential default (or rising rates of inflation), so they demand higher interest rates on long-term loans than they demand on shorter-term loans to compensate for the increased risk. Occasionally, when lenders are seeking long-term debt contracts more aggressively than short-term debt contracts, the yield curve “inverts“, with interest rates (yields) being lower for the longer periods of repayment because borrowers find it easier to attract long-term lending.
The yield of a debt instrument is the overall rate of return available on the investment. In general, the percentage per year that can be earned is dependent on the length of time that the money is invested. For example, a bank may offer a “savings rate” higher than the normal checking account rate if the customer is prepared to leave money untouched for five years. Investing for a period of time t gives a yield Y(t).
This function Y is called the yield curve, and it is often, but not always, an increasing function of t. Yield curves are used by fixed income analysts, who analyze bonds and related securities, to understand conditions in financial markets and to seek trading opportunities. Economists use the curves to understand economic conditions.