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Market Updates

Daily Commentary

November 6th, 2020

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Headline News:

U.S. stock futures are lower as the presidential election continued to drag on with no end in sight. However, investors appear content that the government will remain divided as the Republicans appear to maintain a Senate majority. Meanwhile, U.S economic growth came in better than expected in October, and the unemployment rate fell despite the coronavirus pandemic. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000, and the unemployment rate came in at 6.9%. Labor force participation rose 0.3% to 61.7%.

Markets:

The S&P 500 raced past resistance at 3486.25, rallied up to 3529.05, and closed higher at 3400.27. The trading came with lower volume at 2,500,335,488, while the RSI index moved higher, confirming the uptrend, up to 60.13. We feel the S&P 500 is potentially overbought and extended after an impressive move off the October low at 2233.94. The next move for the index could be lower as normal profit-taking should come in today. If so, a pullback to the 3460 area would be expected. Potential support is now at 3486.25, and possible resistance will remain at 3549.85.

We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish.

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John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

 

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

 

The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report’s private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work.

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