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Daily Commentary

October 2nd, 2020

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Headline News:

U.S. stock futures are much lower to start the day after the announcement that President Trump tested positive for the coronavirus. The news had investors selling equities and moving into potential safer assets to start the day. Also, U.S. job growth came in lower for September at 661,000, much lower than the estimated 800,000 by economists. Unemployment came in lower at 7.9%, and the labor force participation rate was also lower at 61.4%. However, the report did show 12 million jobs have been recovered since the mid-March economic shutdown.

Markets:

The S&P 500 traded near potential support at 3399.54, sold off down to the 50-day moving average at 3359.35, and closed in the middle of the days range at 3380.80. Again, we now know where the buyers and sellers could be active in the future. The RSI index closed higher at 53.32, and the volume was average at 2,348.592,640. Potential support will remain at 3359.35 and then possibly at 3325.00.

We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish.

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John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report’s private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.

 

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