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Market Updates

Daily Commentary

July 14th, 2020

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Headline News:

U.S. stock futures are slightly higher this morning after better than expected earnings from JPMorgan (JPM). The company posted a smaller-than-expected 51% drop in second-quarter profits. Investors seemed to be encouraged but are also expecting the most significant reduction in quarterly earnings since the 2008 financial crisis. However, expectations are shallow, which could lead to some earnings surprises to the upside later this week. The CPI data for June will be released today and provide more data on the U.S. economy’s health.

Markets:

The S&P 500 rallied up to the 6/8/2020 high of 3233.13, It moved up to 3235.32 midday, but sold off to close at 3155.22. In the process, the index moved through support at 3181.49 and 3155.53. Volume was only average, and the RSI index moved down to 55.77 in support of the selling.  Potential support could now come in at 3155.70 if the selling continues today. The lack of volume has us hopeful the selling was an overreaction to the news that broke late in the day about California lockdowns.

We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish.

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John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

 

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

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The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer. Annual inflation is also closely watched.

The consumer price index is available nationally by expenditure category and by commodity and service group for all urban consumers (CPI-U) and wage earners (CPI-W). All urban consumers are a more inclusive group, representing about 87 percent of the population. The CPI-U is the more widely quoted of the two, although cost-of-living contracts for unions and Social Security benefits are usually tied to the CPI-W, because it has a longer history. Monthly variations between the two are slight.

The CPI is also available by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for many metropolitan areas. The regional and city CPIs are often used in local contracts.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also produces a chain-weighted index called the Chained CPI. This measures a variable basket of goods and services whereas the regular CPI-U and CPI-W measure a fixed basket of goods and services. The Chained CPI is similar to the personal consumption expenditure price index that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve Board.

 

 

 

 

 

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