Daily Commentary
Headline News:
U.S. stock futures are lower after President Trump threatened new tariffs on China over the coronavirus pandemic. Traders now appear to fear a return to a prolonged trade war between the two countries. Also, Apple (APPL) said it was impossible to forecast overall results, and Amazon (AMZN) warned it might post its first quarterly loss in 5 years. Later today, the ISM’s purchasing managers index (PMI) will be released at 10:00 am ET. The report is expected to give more guidance on the damage to coronavirus had caused to the U.S. economy.
Markets:
The S&P 500 sold off to 2892.47, which is just above potential support at 2879.22, and the index closed out the day with a close of 2912.43. Volume was again above average, and RSI moved lower in support of the selling to close at 57.87. We believe more selling could potentially come in after the S&P 500 was up over 11% for April. However, the selling should be short-lived, and buyers could possibly come back with a buy the dips mentality.
We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish.
John N. Lilly III
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the stocks of the companies mentioned.
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the